deconsumption

Crossroads

I'm excited to announce that my wife and I just purchased a business. It's a two-year old start-up company which serves as a dealer/retailer of "green" building supplies and products, chiefly Safecoat's leading-brand non-toxic paints and cleaning products, that newly hip recycled cotton "blue-jean" insulation, a great recycled roofing-shingles product, and a range of renewable and organic flooring materials. Plus we can also offer a full line of solar equipment through an affiliation with AEE Solar in California. The former owners were extremely conscientious people, so everything we sell is as green as possible (not just greenwashed) and as locally produced as possible.

In fact the previous owners really only started it up because they were looking for a way to pay the bills while searching for their dream-land to become farmer/homesteaders on. When they finally found that, their job began to get in the way of their life, and they started spending less and less time at the shop. The community hated that they were rarely open. And yet they still managed to gross close to $100,000 in sales during the recent 12-month period--while spending maybe 5 hours a week at the business. Also, advertising has been all but non-existant.

They finally came to realize that they needed to shit or get off the pot, so they started shopping for a buyer, and long story short, I'm it.

So for the time being I'm going to be pretty immersed in that. In truth, I don't know what will happen to Deconsumption over the short run here. I suppose when I have things under my belt at the store I will want to get back to it, especially since I'm launched on a crash course for sustainable living. But on the other hand I keep wondering whether there is really that much more to say. Has this whole thing just become a lot of navel-gazing? Are there really solid questions about the state of the world and where it's headed that haven't yet been addressed?

In any event, I'll definitely be out of commission for a couple weeks, during which time I'm going to try to decide whether I really feel I have something more to say around here, or if I should just let Deconsumption go once and for all.

Same News, Different Day

The march to pre-emptive war continues:

Ahmadinejad: Israel’s destruction near - Ynetnews (not by any means to defend Ahmadinejad, but Ynetnews is an Israeli paper so the translation/context is anyone's guess)

"According to the Iranian media Monday, Iranian President Mahoud Ahmadinejad declared that Israel was destined to ‘disappearance and destruction’ at a council meeting with Iranian ministers. “The western powers created the Zionist regime in order to expand their control of the area. This regime massacres Palestinians everyday, but since this regime is against nature, we will soon witness its disappearance and destruction,” Ahmadinejad said. "

Netanyahu: It's 1938 and Iran is Germany; Ahmadinejad is preparing another Holocaust - Haaretz

"It's 1938 and Iran is Germany. And Iran is racing to arm itself with atomic bombs," Netanyahu told delegates to the annual United Jewish Communities General Assembly, repeating the line several times, like a chorus, during his address. "Believe him and stop him," the opposition leader said of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. "This is what we must do. Everything else pales before this."

While the Iranian president "denies the Holocaust," Netanyahu said, "he is preparing another Holocaust for the Jewish state.".

...Netanyahu hinted that Israel possesses the military capabilities necessary for curbing by itself the Iranian nuclear threat, declining to specify what these entail.

..."Noone will defend the Jews if the Jews don't defend themselves," he said to loud applause. "Iran's nuclear ambitions have to be stopped."

Iran: Nuke Program Is Almost Complete

"Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the President of Iran, said on Tuesday that the counry would soon complete its nuclear fuel program.

...Xinhua News Agency reports, Ahmadinejad said, "The nuclear powers, in spite of their initial resistance against our program, have accepted for Iran a position in nuclear club, it means that we have stabilized our nuclear status."

He added, "We are ready to collaborate with all of the countries in the world except one (Israel) whose legitimacy has been continuously under question."

Plutonium found in Iran waste facility - Yahoo! News

"International Atomic Energy experts have found unexplained plutonium and highly enriched uranium traces in a nuclear waste facility in Iran and have asked Tehran for an explanation, an IAEA report said Tuesday."

Bush meets with Iraq Study Group

"President Bush met Monday with members of a high-level panel that's seeking solutions to the war in Iraq, and he afterward reiterated his view that conditions on the ground rather than artificial timetables should determine when the United States withdraws its troops.

...The congressionally mandated, 10-member panel is considering a host of proposals to extricate the United States from Iraq, including a phased troop withdrawal, a last-ditch effort to stabilize the country, and reaching out to U.S. adversaries in the region, including Iran and Syria.

It's expected to issue its recommendations, which are being prepared in secrecy, sometime next month."

Richard Russell Sums Things Up Nicely...

Veteran (with a capital "V") market and world-events analyst Richard Russell offers the best commentary I've yet seen in trying to digest the recent political turn of events in the U.S. [credit michaelrunge]:

The verdict is in

"Much power has now been transferred to the Democrats. They don't deserve it. They went along passively, cowardly, and cluelessly with the Bush caravan. Their real claim to power is not courage or intelligence, their real claim to their new power is simply that they are not Bushies or neo-cons. In all, it's a sad story. But it's a story, less sad than it was a day ago.

Effectively, the reign of Bush and the neo-cons is over. Today there is one less neo-con, Rumsfeld is gone. What turned the tide? Actually, it was the belated back-stiffening of the press. The newspapers, early on, were cowed by the Bush crowd. Later, Iraq, lies, and the administration's arrogance was too much for the press. The press regained its courage. With the recovery of courage by the press, the truth emerged, and the Bush people were doomed.

Economically, the big picture will now boil down to four phenomena: (1) Iraq, (2) the continuing massive US deficits, (3) the longer-term effects of the deteriorating housing picture, (4) the incredible disparity between Wall Street and the rich -- and the great mass of struggling Americans.

Iraq will be a continuing cancer. I have no idea how it will be resolved.

The deficits will probably be ignored despite much hand-wringing.

The housing situation (in my opinion) will deteriorate and become a huge problem.

The disparity between the rich and the poor will remain an unsolved cancer -- it will also be a source of anger on the part of most Americans.

The consensus continues to be that housing is due for a "soft landing." In my opinion, the soft landing is a fantasy. I think it will be well into next year before we know what kind of landing housing is headed for. I think it's going to be a very hard landing, one that will work a hardship on the entire nation."

For my own record, Rummy was only swapped with another deep-rooted NeoCon--so no points can be awarded there.

Also, in his "four phenomena" Russell makes no mention of the huge, sustained leap in oil prices we'll almost certainly see over the next couple years. And at some point as well the health care system is going to begin unravelling, although that may not happen for five or six years yet. I'd rate either of those situations above "the disparity between rich and poor", which is something I don't see Americans getting all that worked up about.

Oh....and for an interesting take on all those analysts who're foreseeing a "soft landing" in housing, The Big Picture has scraped out of the dustbin a long list of market predictions and prognostications that were made during the Crash of 1929 and the resulting depression.

Start U.S. Iraq withdrawal in 4-6 months: Democrats

Link.

"Democrats, who won majorities in the U.S. Congress in last week's elections, said on Sunday they will push for a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq to begin in four to six months.

"The first order of business is to change the direction of Iraq policy," said Sen. Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat who is expected to be chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee in the new Congress."

There appears to be a shift of some kind happening. But are there legitimate intentions underlying this statement, or just empty promises? I think there are a lot of important questions to follow lately, and I'm trying to keep the cynic within me from assuming that it already has any of the answers...

How "phased" will the withdrawal be? What about the 10 or 12 permanent bases that were established? What purpose will they even serve in the face of a substantial troop withdrawal and the accompanying loss of control over virtually every urban, transport or oil-producting region of the country?

And how much pressure does this announcement put on Israel's security agenda? Certainly the shifting of the political winds must come as a great relief for Iran, Syria and Lebanon/Hezbollah--they should now recognize that they have much more to gain by waiting and stalling than by threatening and covert rabble-rousing. But what benefit will this offer Israel leaders, who have come to completely rely on the U.S. military presence and support in recent policy decisions? Again, I have to ask...do they feel they're now being forced into pre-emptive engagement against those abovementioned aggressors? And if so, where would the loyalties of incoming Democrats lie then?

And in truth, Israeli officials are trying to downplay last week's "pre-emptive strike" statement by a Defense Minister.

Meanwhile, the Oval Office rather curiously appears to be just as confident about ignoring these shifting winds as the Israelis have been. The appointment of Robert "Thing 2" Gates to replace Rumsfeld made that clear enough, but then it also seems that they're stepping up the now familiar "message framing" machinery:

W.House brands Iran, Hezbollah as terror "nexus"

Maybe it's just that I'm a staunch contrarian. A year or so ago, back when everybody was bemoaning that the NeoCons were gearing up to launch an attack against Iran by March at the latest, I said "uh uh, read my lips: nah gohn du-it". But now, with anti-NeoCon sentiment everywhere you poke a stick, I'm beginning to get the feeling that such a strike is just over the horizon. Most likely, though, it's just my fight/flight reflexes getting the better of me....

Here's one other side topic I can't help referencing on the front page. According to The Statesman: Homeowners are going underwater as loans pass home values

"According to an analysis by Comstock Partners, a Yardley, Pa.-based asset management company, 15.2 percent of 2005 home buyers owe at least 10 percent more than their houses are worth. Those people made minimum payments on pay-option ARMs, their homes' values dropped, or both.

"The market has changed in the last three, four, five months — dramatically — and they're not getting from their houses what their neighbors were getting 12 or six months ago," says John Hayes, president and CEO of HomeVestors, the company with the "We buy ugly houses" billboards.

As short-term interest rates have risen in the past two years, the underlying rates of interest-only and option ARMs have gone up, too. Sooner or later, the minimum monthly payments could rise abruptly, past the point of comfort.

...Some people won't be able to refinance, especially if they are underwater and low on cash. In that case, says Jim Svinth, vice president of capital markets for HomeLoanCenter.com, take a knife to expenses: "Do you really need two cars? Do you have a boat? Really make tough decisions in order to stay current on the loan."

If that's not enough, talk to the loan servicer as soon as you can. Don't let the customer service representative brush you off by telling you that no help is available until your payment is a month overdue. Say, "Please escalate this call and let me speak to a supervisor." Once your payment is a month past due, your options shrink.

Depending on your situation and whether the originating lender sold the loan, the servicer might give you a break on the mortgage payments in exchange for putting the home on the market immediately.

"If someone is starting to feel they're starting to get underwater or are getting concerned, now is the time to sell," Garfinkel says. "I'm not saying they're going to make a boatload, but they can get out."

There is a type of sale called a "short sale," in which the house is sold for less than the mortgage balance, and the difference is either forgiven or paid off over time. You can't do a short sale without the cooperation of the lender. If you can afford to, hire an attorney to negotiate the details of a short sale with the lender."

There are so many housing bubble stories coming out I don't even bother to follow most of them anymore, but the appropriately-named Housing Bubble weblog is a great place to rubber-neck if you're so inclined.

Twelve Steps Forward, One Step Back

Just a quick comment now that the elections in America have come and gone. Only time will tell if the new Bosses will be the same as the old Bosses, but for now at least we can lay to rest the fears of all those Nervous Nellies who forecasted that Nov. 7th couldn't pass without some kind of major attack, fraud or October/November surprise.

The biggest (non-)story is how Rummy was sacrificed to the wolves the day after the elections. The (non-) is because it won't change anything for any of us in the slightest. Basically Thing 1 was replaced by Thing 2--former CIA director Robert Gates. But it has much of the GOP furious. "Why couldn't you cut him loose BEFORE the voters went to the polls?" they're whining. But far more interesting is that no sooner did his ass hit the pavement but the criminal charges started to fly. Not pageboy groping, either, but real Geneva War Crime kinda stuff:

"A lawsuit in Germany will seek a criminal prosecution of the former Defense Secretary and other U.S. officials for their alleged role in abuses at Abu Ghraib and Gitmo.

...Germany's top prosecutor will seek a criminal investigation and prosecution of Rumsfeld, along with Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, former CIA director George Tenet and other senior U.S. civilian and military officers, for their alleged roles in abuses committed at Iraq's Abu Ghraib prison and at the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

...Germany was chosen for the court filing because German law provides "universal jurisdiction" allowing for the prosecution of war crimes and related offenses that take place anywhere in the world.

...the plaintiffs argue that circumstances have changed in two important ways. Rumsfeld's resignation, they say, means that the former Defense Secretary will lose the legal immunity usually accorded high government officials. Moreover, the plaintiffs argue that the German prosecutor's reasoning for rejecting the previous case — that U.S. authorities were dealing with the issue — has been proven wrong. "The utter and complete failure of U.S. authorities to take any action to investigate high-level involvement in the torture program could not be clearer"

For an administration so steeped in Darwinism it's only fitting that the NeoCon herd would sacrifice its weakest members. But still, the cynical can be forgiven for suspecting that this investigation might turn out to be only as much smoke-in-the-wind as Patrick Fitzgerald's impeachment promises of yesteryear. For one thing, they've already re-written "...and justice for all" to read "...and justice for y'all".

"...the Military Commissions Act, a law passed by Congress earlier this year effectively blocks prosecution in the U.S. of those involved in detention and interrogation abuses of foreigners held abroad in American custody going to back to Sept. 11, 2001."

But keep in mind that the Military Commissions Act won't carry much weight outside of the U.S. So perhaps Rumsfeld will eventually end up on a few "no-fly" lists around Europe. A nuisance, yes, but still...it's good to be der Fuhrer. [Ed. update: Reader Leo B. let me know that The Nation has just covered the suit, and the piece makes it clear that the Military Commissions Act is itself being used in the case--and with precedent--as evidence of "intent to block prosecution"].

Yes, I think the recent turns of fate have thrown a serious wrench into NeoCon plans for....well, whatever the hell their plans are for. [Ed. update: Congress to stall on approval for warrantless wiretapping until next year] And certainly the agenda for war against Iran is slipping further away from them with every passing day. Indeed, at this point, so long as Ahmadinajad doesn't allow himself to be baited into attacking Western forces, I suspect that every other member of the international community is more than happy to wait until January when the new Congress turns over and American policy might once again place diplomacy above warmongering.

But still, I can't help thinking about this recent slumber-party I reported on in the last post between Bush and (Israeli Prime Minister) Olmert and (Director of National Intelligence) John Negropont and (Mossad director) Meir Dagan. In truth, I'm ready to reverse my long-stated opinion that reason and sanity would ultimately prevail over NeoCon war plans against Iran. I now suspect that reason and sanity are not going to be allowed to sit at the table. And I suspect an attack on Iran will occur within the next few weeks.

After all, what would these guys really have to talk about in an unprecedented meeting between these two Intelligence directors at this pivotal juncture in the Mid-East situation? Withdrawal tactics? Defense preparations? Diplomatic strategies?

Israel official: Strike on Iran possible

"The deputy defense minister suggested Friday that Israel might be forced to launch a military strike against Iran's disputed nuclear program — the clearest statement yet of such a possibility from a high-ranking official."

With the breaking of political ranks in the White House, and in the face of a public which is increasingly willing to question whether people really should be tortured and slaughtered for their "way of life", the chances for the Bush administration to spearhead a pre-emptive strike against Iran have gotten mighty slim indeed.

But how would a lame duck Congress react if it was Israel that launched the first missiles?

Would they continue to ride these changing winds of public opinion and withdraw troops from harm's way in Iraq?

Or might they instead claim that now their hand has been "forced"? And that they must act in "defense" of those troops, geographically sandwiched as they are between two fiercesome aggressors?

It's worth noting as well that Israeli leaders don't play games. They talk the talk, sure. But they also walk the walk. And I believe that they believe that the endgame for them is coming soon, regardless of whether the U.S. is there to back them up or not. So to stand by and watch American forces begin to withdraw from the Mid-East--even if only gradually, and not completely--would likely leave the Israeli administration before the bitter prospect of embracing statesmanship once again over brinksmanship. Is it already too late for the ego of Israeli leaders to reconsider the path of humility?

I have no doubt that it was exactly such questions as the above that were being debated over Cheetos and Mountain Dew during that giggly slumber-party last week in Jerusalem. And indeed, this weekend it's Bush's turn to host the sleep-over:

"Olmert, who was arriving in Washington on Sunday, said he was confident in the U.S. handling of the international standoff over Iran's nuclear program.

..."I have enormous respect for President Bush. He is absolutely committed," Olmert said in an interview on NBC's "Today" show. "I know that America will not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons because this is a danger to the whole Western world."

Yes, well...sleep tight kids.

And Yet More News Stringing

Continuing along on the same theme of desperation, this time I'm making note of the intense Israeli fears leading into the U.S. elections.

From The Jerusalem Post: Democrats, Republicans, Media and Condi 'Subvert' President Bush

"Today, the public debate in the U.S. revolves around one question: When are we leaving Iraq? The conventional wisdom has become that U.S. operations in Iraq are futile. Due in large part to politically driven press coverage, Americans have received the impression that the U.S. cannot succeed in Iraq and that consequently, their leaders ought to be concentrating their efforts on building an exit strategy.

...[C]ontrary to Bush's clear view on the matter, State Department officials work around the clock negotiating cease-fires. Indeed, one of the capstones of Rice's diplomatic efforts is the August cease-fire in Lebanon under which Israel is prevented from defending itself and Hezbullah is moving swiftly to rebuild its forces.

...THE SITUATION can be reversed. The media are no longer the power they were in Cronkite's day. Were the administration to challenge the networks, the networks would be forced to adjust their coverage to reality.

...The leaders of the Democratic Party today compete amongst themselves to see who can be more defeatist....Whatever the results of the elections, Israel must hope that for his last two years in office, President Bush will take firm control of his administration - first and foremost by curbing Rice and her State Department associates - and lead a concerted, unabashed diplomatic and public opinion offensive."

Ahem...if there's one area where this administration hasn't weakened it's their "unabashed public opinion offensive".

But really...someone should inform the Jerusalem Post that it's not just the weak-kneed liberal media and backstabbing NeoCons who are painting the picture of debacle in the Middle East. There's also a veritable battalion of top Generals and military Commanders urging our withdrawal (most recently Lt. Gen. William Odom).

From Arutz Sheva: An Appeal of Faith to President George W. Bush

"Dear Mr. President, I am writing to you because I am afraid.

...I appeal to you now, not as a political analyst nor as a newspaper columnist, but as one man of faith to another: please strike Iran hard with military force, and dismantle their nuclear weapons program, before it is too late.

...I know you believe, as I do, that G-d guides the destiny of men and of nations. And I know you believe, just as I do, that He raised you up to the helms of power precisely at this critical period, to serve as His agent and His instrument in this world. The G-d of history has chosen you, Mr. President, just as He did Churchill, and He has entrusted you with a sacred mandate: to save the world from the designs of a madman.

I can tell you that in Israel, a sense of dread has slowly, but surely, begun to sink in. As the Sunday Times of London reported earlier this week, a growing number of my fellow Jews have begun to build underground nuclear shelters adjacent to their homes...."

Obviously then we're seeing a resounding fear in Israel that the U.S. might withdraw from the region and leave them high and dry, with not only Lebanese hostilities to deal with but an Iraqi implosion and an emboldened Iran to fend off as well. It's certainly not an enviable situation, to say the least.

But is the U.S. really preparing to withdraw?

DEBKAfile speculates about how Saddam Hussein's sentencing coincides with the U.S. election, which may signal that an exit strategy is being embraced.

" But the point about moving on could apply equally to America, given the timing of the verdict. The tribunal headed by a Kurdish judge handed down sentences against Saddam and his seven co-defendants two days before the American voter decides who dominates the Houses of Congress – Republicans or Democrats. The interrelation of events was generally interpreted as the Bush administration’s bid to offset the widespread criticism of its Iraq venture with a positive achievement.

Much less obvious was the fact that the sentencing session and the concomitant high security alert in and around Baghdad also coincided with American-British preparations to start moving their troops out of Iraq’s main cities, first disclosed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly two weeks ago.

This step will be the crucial starter to the phased exit of both armies from the country."

And lastly, here's one for the "Things that make you go hmmm..." file: a very, very interesting report from Haaretz: Official: Israel ignoring U.S. plan to leave Iraq

"Israeli political and defense officials are ignoring the preparations to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq, even though such a move is expected to have major strategic ramifications for Israel, said senior officials in Jerusalem yesterday. The officials are concerned by the minimal interest they said Israeli political leaders were showing in the developments in Iraq.

..."As far as we know," said an official from the Prime Minister's Office, "it is not about to happen soon."

...Meanwhile, Bush administration envoys David Welch and Elliott Abrams arrived in the region yesterday to prepare for the Olmert-Bush meeting....Olmert is to meet today with John Negroponte, the U.S. director of national intelligence, who is on his first trip to the region as a guest of Mossad director Meir Dagan. Negroponte's discussions with Israeli officials are expected to focus on combating the Iranian nuclear threat."

I can only speculate what the talking points will be for both those meetings, but I have no doubt that between those talks and the elections on Tuesday, this next week will be serving-up some decidedly difficult decisions for the Deciders.

More News Stringing

Here's the second string of events I've been noting lately in the media. These pertain to the NeoCon's Iraqi war debacle. And like the economic postings before this, they only seem to draw out a line of increasing desperation.

Oh, and I'll have to deal these out fast 'n loose because I don't have much time for formal commentary:

Iraqi Demands Pullback; U.S. Lifts Baghdad Cordon

"Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki demanded the removal of American checkpoints from the streets of Baghdad on Tuesday, in what appeared to be his latest and boldest gambit in an increasingly tense struggle for more independence from his American protectors. Mr. Maliki’s public declaration seemed at first to catch American commanders off guard. But by nightfall, American troops had abandoned all the positions in eastern and central Baghdad that they had set up last week with Iraqi forces as part of a search for a missing American soldier.

...The language of the declaration, which implied that Mr. Maliki had the power to command American forces, seemed to overstep his authority and to be aimed at placating his Shiite constituency. The withdrawal was greeted with jubilation in the streets of Sadr City, the densely populated Shiite enclave where the Americans have focused their manhunt and where anti-American sentiment runs high. The initial American reaction to the order, which was released by Mr. Maliki’s press office, strongly suggested that the statement had not been issued in concert with the American authorities."

Meanwhile a couple more big names have joined the "flight of the fair-weather friends" in Iraq:

Bechtel ends Iraq rebuilding after a rough 3 years

"Bechtel Corp. went to Iraq three years ago to help rebuild a nation torn by war. Since then, 52 of its people have been killed and much of its work sabotaged as Iraq dissolved into insurgency and sectarian violence. Now Bechtel is leaving.

...The size of Bechtel's contracts also shrank over time, as U.S. officials diverted money from reconstruction and toward security. Instead of the nearly $3 billion originally budgeted, Bechtel finally received about $2.3 billion, a figure that includes money the company spent on projects as well as its undisclosed profit."

Kroll pulls security teams out of Iraq

"Security company Kroll has withdrawn its bodyguard teams from Iraq and Afghanistan after it lost four workers in Iraq, its parent company said Wednesday....In its third-quarter earnings statement issued Wednesday, Marsh & McLennan said that "results for the security group reflected the orderly exit from high-risk international assignments that had limited profitability and no longer fit Kroll's business strategy."

Hey, it's one thing to make money, but it's quite another to actually have to earn it... I guess the nice thing about privatizing our armed forces is that they can always "cut 'n run" the minute the going starts to get tough and they don't lose face. After all, they're corporations, not civilian defense forces. Their only Duty is to their shareholders and their Board of Directors. Their only Honor lies in punching-out alive at the end of the day and collecting a paycheck...


It seems that little spat in Lebanon a few months ago might be about to rear its ugly head once more:

Hezbollah demands new government

"Hezbollah is demanding a new government in Lebanon. The militant group threatened to force early elections with street protests and the resignation of its two Cabinet ministers if its demands are not met....Hezbollah has been demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora since the terrorist group sparked a 34-day war with Israel this summer that left much of Lebanon in ruins."

Hezbollah is essentially the de facto national military for Lebanon, and displays far more competence, training and discipline than the "official" army. They also command widespread public support as well as having important allies in political positions, so this is a coup with serious clout. Israel will take this challenge very, very seriously. They're taking more than a bit of interest, anyway.

Israel fighter jets stage mock raids

"Israel's fighter jets roared over Hezbollah strongholds Tuesday, staging mock raids in its strongest show of force since its war with the guerrilla group ended more than two months ago. The flyovers, which startled many Lebanese with fresh memories of the war, highlight the unsettled tensions between Israel and its northern neighbor, whose political situation has grown increasingly more uncertain."

Not surprisingly, one of America's key allies in the region finally appears to have arrived at the conclusion-party, even if it's just a trifle late: Saudi study calls Iraq 'lost battle'

"The US war in Iraq is a "lost battle" and the violence-ravaged nation's "dire" plight seems certain to see it shatter along ethnic lines, an advisor to the Saudi government is warning. The damning analysis, unveiled in a presentation at a two-day conference on US-Arab relations here, sees violence in Iraq getting worse and alleges large-scale Iranian "interference" there set to grow.

...The question in Iraq is not "if the US succeeds - it has failed by every single measure that you can think of," said Obaid, private security and energy advisor to the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Prince Turki al-Faisal. "The failure is only compounded by the fact that we just don't know what the endgame is."

...The study concluded that a Kurdish drive for quasi-independence within Iraq would gather speed, as would the insurgency, and Iranian influence in the country could be expected to increase as American influence waned."

And yet the White House NeoCons still don't seem to know a better tune to sing than that tired old ditty called "Denial":

Bush reiterates US winning in Iraq

"President Bush says the upsurge in violence in Iraq does not disprove his contention that U-S forces are winning there.

Interviewed on the Rush Limbaugh Show, the president insisted whenever the enemy in Iraq "confronts" U-S troops, they lose. He says the only way America can lose the conflict is if those troops go home before the mission's complete.

Bush's comments come days ahead of an election in which Iraq's the top issue -- and he's accused Democrats of wanting to "cut and run." They also follow a New York Times report that quotes an internal Pentagon study saying Iraq is moving "closer to chaos."

Imbecilic statements like that, however, have become the last straw for the increasingly strained relationship between the Commanders in Chief and the people they command:

Army Times: "Time for Rumsfeld to go"

"An editorial scheduled to appear on Monday in Army Times, Air Force Times, Navy Times and Marine Corps Times, calls for the resignation of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld....It is one thing for the majority of Americans to think Rumsfeld has failed. But when the nation's current military leaders start to break publicly with their defense secretary, then it is clear that he is losing control of the institution he ostensibly leads."

And American military forces aren't the only ones who've noticed that this reign of dunces is stumbling on its last legs. In the Mid-East, centuries of strife and tensions now appear to be settling down to the card table to deal out their final hand:

Six Arab states join rush to go nuclear

"THE SPECTRE of a nuclear race in the Middle East was raised yesterday when six Arab states announced that they were embarking on programmes to master atomic technology.

...The countries involved were named by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Saudi Arabia. Tunisia and the UAE have also shown interest.

...Egypt and other North African states can argue with some justification that they need cheap, safe energy for their expanding economies and growing populations at a time of high oil prices. The case will be much harder for Saudi Arabia, which sits on the world’s largest oil reserves."

"Embarking on programmes to master atomic technology...". That's a good one. Because if you don't know by now that the "official announcement" is always the LAST stage of any plan or program, then you just haven't been paying attention.

And lastly, you can make of this what you will. Lord knows the above six countries probably have:

US shuts down 'how to build a nuclear bomb' website

"The US government has shut down a website containing Iraqi documents from the Saddam Hussein era, after complaints - including one from the United Nations' nuclear watchdog - that they amounted to a manual on how to build an atomic bomb.

...According to the Times, the documents in question contain charts and diagrams that give information going well beyond what exists elsewhere on the internet, including details of how to build firing circuits for a bomb, as well as their core of fissile material. Not only did the documents illustrate the technical problems encountered by the Iraqis, they also showed the way a would-be bomb constructor could get round them....a "shocked" IAEA is said to have delivered a private protest to the US last week, saying that the material could speed Iran's suspected quest for a nuclear bomb.

...Another irony is that the trove of 48,000 boxes of documents was made public largely at the urging of Iraq war hawks in Congress and the press, who believed they might contain the elusive proof that Saddam was developing nuclear weapons."

So what conclusions do all these events and indicators reach as far as the Iranian Invasion plans--which like Windows Longhorn/Vista only seem to become increasingly more distant and more pointless with every passing postponement? I'll leave that up to you, dear reader. Because as I've said ever since the first speculations entered the social super-conscious of the blogosphere, I've never taken these Iranian Invasion blusterings seriously. Not that I don't doubt that a small handful of NeoCons take them seriously, because I'm sure they do. But somehow...eventually...even in this era of ignorance and denial, the instinct for self-preservation still wins out. "Angels watch over children and drunks" as the saying goes.

News Stringer

I referenced a slew of important news pieces at the News Room yesterday, and in doing so I realized that there were a couple major "lines" of events unfolding in the media, so I thought I'd string one of them together more directly right here. Hopefully I can outline the other one in a day or two, but feel free to visit the news room and browse the recent Iraqi war developments.

Anyway, I'll start on the economic front, where the following warnings have all surfaced in just the past week (Cryptogon.com has bagged most of these already):

Former World Bank Chief Economist Predicts Global Crash

"Former World Bank Vice President, Chief Economist and Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz has predicted a global economic crash within 24 months - unless the current downturn is successfully managed. Asked if the situation was being properly handled Stiglitz emphatically responded "no," and also drew ominous parallels to the development of the NAFTA Superhighway and the North American Union."

GAO Chief Warns Economic Disaster Looms

"Walker can talk in public about the nation's impending fiscal crisis because he has one of the most secure jobs in Washington. As comptroller general of the United States - basically, the government's chief accountant - he is serving a 15-year term that runs through 2013....But the backbone of his campaign has been the Fiscal Wake-up Tour, a traveling roadshow of economists and budget analysts who share Walker's concern for the nation's budgetary future.

...Their basic message is this: If the United States government conducts business as usual over the next few decades, a national debt that is already $8.5 trillion could reach $46 trillion or more, adjusted for inflation. That's almost as much as the total net worth of every person in America - Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and those Google guys included.

A hole that big could paralyze the U.S. economy; according to some projections, just the interest payments on a debt that big would be as much as all the taxes the government collects today.

And every year that nothing is done about it, Walker says, the problem grows by $2 trillion to $3 trillion."

Of course it's ludicrous to speak about the current state of affairs continuing for the next "few decades", but the interesting point is that the GAO Chief has actually come to believe that he must take his show on the road to the moneyed-classes in this country to get his message across. Evidently the people who hire him aren't listening...

Paulson re-activates secretive support team to prevent markets meltdown

"Judging by their body language, the US authorities believe the roaring bull market this autumn is just a suckers' rally before the inevitable storm hits.

Hank Paulson, the market-wise Treasury Secretary who built a $700m fortune at Goldman Sachs, is re-activating the 'plunge protection team' (PPT), a shadowy body with powers to support stock index, currency, and credit futures in a crash.

...Mr Paulson says the group had been allowed to languish over the boom years. [Ed. note: no it hasn't, that's a lie]. Henceforth, it will have a command centre at the US Treasury that will track global markets and serve as an operations base in the next crisis.

...Mr Paulson is not the only one preparing for trouble. Days earlier, the SEC said it aims to slash margin requirements for institutions and hedge funds on stocks, options, and futures to as low as 15pc, down from a range of 25pc to 50pc....The move is so odd that conspiracy buffs are already accusing SEC chief Chris Cox of juicing the markets to help stop the implosion of the Bush presidency."

Lowering the margin rate means giving the huge players LOTS more money to play with, certainly. But it also--perhaps more importantly--means they've been given lots more breathing-room on their margin calls.

And I suspect that's the principle reason for the move. If hedge funds are facing margin calls that means they're being forced into a position where they have to sell, and time and again that's the recipe for a market crash, as the margin calls beget selling which begets more margin calls and more selling.

This is absolutely a desperation move, no doubt about it. Coupled with the uncloseting and knighting of the PPT--which is nothing more than an officially sponsored market-manipulation group--it sounds a strong signal that something is very wrong.

What a strange world our markets have become when indexes can hit new highs and there is such wide-eyed desperation in the ranks that they're resorting to changing the rules to keep things going. Of course, keep in mind that a host of smart people have been saying that the markets have been playing against a "house edge" for several years now, and many old-timers have left the game altogether.

Oh, and speaking of desperation, this piece is my favorite (and double kudos to Keving at Cryptogon.com for noting it):

Costello seeks orderly $US withdrawal

"[Australian] TREASURER Peter Costello has called on East Asia's central bankers to "telegraph" their intentions to diversify out of American investments and ensure an orderly adjustment.

Central banks in China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong have channelled immense foreign reserves into American government bonds, helping to prop up the US dollar and hold down American interest rates.

Mr Costello said "the strategy had changed" and Chinese central bankers were now looking for alternative investments.

"Of course you can have an orderly adjustment," he told reporters. "And what I would recommend is that these matters be telegraphed well in advance. I think we should begin preparing ourselves for it."

I literally had to laugh when I read this again and realized he was serious. It's not that "telegraphing" moves is any big deal--heck people do it all the time. But they generally do it AFTER they've taken or exited a position. Watch CNBC, whose only purpose anymore is to allow money managers to tell people what they want them to do after they themselves have already done it. Or any stock bulletin board for that matter....

No, the real shocker is that the Australian Treasurer is openly admitting that people are getting trigger happy to dump the dollar. He's asking these Eastern bankers "hey, can't you just let everyone else in on your monetary plans". In effect, he seems to be admitting that the US Dollar is a liability, that no one is looking to the US for monetary guidance anymore, and he's genuflecting before China to call the shots going forward. In fact if you read the piece, he goes on to kiss a lot of butt, saying how Australia is really a lot closer to China than it is to the Western world, respects it's unique heritage and culture, etc.

Clearly Costello is switching sides out of fear of a US$ collapse, letting everyone know there's a new tune to dance to. (And the UAE appears eager to hit the dance floor early).

But ultimately in the contest for desperate statements, the brass ring goes to our own President Elect(?):

China saving too much money: Bush

"US President George W. Bush said today that he hoped China would transform from a country where people "hoard the money they have" into one where people buy large amounts of US products.

In an interview with conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh, Mr Bush said China should become "a society in which there's consumers. Because now they're a society of too many savers".

..."If we can encourage China to become a country of consumers, you can imagine what it would mean for US producers and manufacturers to have access to that market," he said."

I can't even explain where such an asinine statement comes from. China will never go that path because they are fundamentally a different people. Shouldn't a world leader have at least some inkling of essential, varying cultural characteristics? But then I guess if you're a NeoCon you're already suffering under the erroneous assumption that everybody else really wants to be what you want them to be....

But even to make a statement like this must cause world leaders everywhere to roll their eyes. I mean the world already knows that Americans are living on borrowed money/time--now we're advising the Chinese to do so as well, so that we can continue our spree? The Chinese want the US to collapse! They'd just rather have it happen slowly than quickly... And what are we going to sell them? Their own stuff? I mean I know there are Wal-Marts in China, but let's face it: one day the troops are going to walk into them and escort the small handful of foreign managers out the door and off to the airport (hopefully) and that will be it. A bloodless corporate coup. After all the only thing non-Chinese about them are the financial coffers!

But regardless, for Bush to even make a statement like this is worrisome. Mark my words: Bush, or/and his administration, are headed for some kind of collapse before the next election comes around. I don't hold much hope for fundamental reform to come out of this week's elections, and I don't doubt an Iranian invasion-gambit is on the table....but however that may be, these people have got "implosion" written all over them.