Iran, We Hardly Knew Ya....

The word on the street is that within the next couple weeks we'll be having our first nuclear war!

4/08/2006: Seymour Hersh argues in The New Yorker that the NeoCon administration is only pretending to diplomacy while in practice is determined to attack Iran. People who think war is great when it isn't directed at them flail Hersh for "baseless speculation", while the rest of the informed populace belches out a collective "Well Duh!"

4/10/2006: Jorge Hirsch, UCSD Physicist and analyst on Iran and nuclear weapons, offers a very well-argued commentary on ZNet saying that Seymour Hersh is right, the song-and-dance with the UN is just some necessary bureaucratic paper-shuffling. He also states the following:

"If there is an aerial bombing of Iran, I believe it is inevitable it will go nuclear. The intention is there, the advisors are there, the nuclear policies and the weapons are there. The excuses to make it "acceptable" to the American public are there. The President has sole authority to order the use of nuclear weapons, Congress has no say. The chain of command doesn't go through the Joint Chiefs of Staff that may oppose it as Hersh mentions: it goes directly from Bush and Rumsfeld to commanders of the Unified Combatant Commands such as Gen. Abizaid and Gen. Cartwright. Unless those individuals disobey orders, there is no way to stop it.

I believe there is a high probability of war with Iran because key people in the administration desperately want it, but I don't believe it is inevitable. I hope there will be a sufficiently large public outburst of opposition, eg thanks to Hersh's and other's revelations, to make it impossible....However I believe there is very little time: an attack may well happen within the next 2 weeks, while Congress is in recess. There is no advantage to those that want it to happen in waiting."

4/11/2006: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announces that Tehran has succeeded in enriching uranium on a small scale for the first time. Even top U.S. intelligence officials insist he must be lying.

4/12/2006: Bloomberg News quotes a U.S. State Department mouthpiece:

"Iran, defying United Nations Security Council demands to halt its nuclear program, may be capable of making a nuclear bomb within 16 days...".

...which by strange fortune puts them right on target (pun intended) with the NeoCons' widely-expected but widely-denied plans. As I've mentioned before, this guy Ahmadinejad could not be a worse leader for the Iranian people if the CIA itself were pulling his strings.... (Pause)

*Ahem*

Anyway, while few people argue that such an attack would be completely disasterous and even insane, and while admittedly there is still much denial of it throughout the press...for the next couple weeks at least I'll be walking on eggshells.

[UPDATE 4/14/2006: Ahmadinejad out today doin' what he do best:

"The president of Iran again lashed out at Israel on Friday and said it was "heading toward annihilation," just days after Tehran raised fears about its nuclear activities by saying it successfully enriched uranium for the first time. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called Israel a "permanent threat" to the Middle East that will "soon" be liberated....The land of Palestine, he said, referring to the British mandated territory that includes all of Israel, Gaza and the West Bank, "will be freed soon."

He did not say how this would be achieved, but insisted to the audience of at least 900 people: "Believe that Palestine will be freed soon."

And then, just to add spice to this news-mix:

"Six retired generals, including three who commanded troops in Iraq under Rumsfeld's leadership, have publicly stated their criticism of Rumsfeld's leadership and called for his resignation."]

Comments

[montysano]

I've thought that this was Bush with approval ratings in the 30's and Ahmadinejad with approval ratings in the teens, and they're trying to create a distraction from their miserable polls, and from the scandals nipping at Bush's heels. As such, this is only so much saber rattling. I hope I'm right. I find it inconceivable that we would strike a country that hadn't attacked us, again, this time with nukes. But we are talking Rummy, Cheney, et al; not exactly paragons of restraint.

And, as noted in Steve's recent post, if Aramco's production is indeed in decline, then the neocons, hearing the distant clucking of chickens come home to roost, may think that now is the time to act.

[Ltgesq]

Iran could produce the materials for a nuclear weapon within 16 days, if they possessed the equipment. Of the 50000 centerfuges necessary to do it, Iran only posseses 160. It will take years (between 5 and 10)of diligent work to produce a nuclear weapon.

right now the most irresponsible nation in the world possesses the most nuclear weapons.

God help us.

[Brandon]

My friend Mark is fond of following the old Chinese blessing/curse "May you live in interesting times" up with "The thing about living in interesting times is, at least they're interesting."

Indeed.

[Shep]

I don't know if anyone will remember this (or care), but a few weeks ago Steven, you made a comment that since the mysterious Iranian Oil Bourse seemed to disappear into thin air on March 20th, that the reason for an attack on the country had evaporated.

I posted a short comment positing that no matter what happened, Iran would be attacked. It seems that I was correct. There are many other reasons besides the bourse that cause the maniacs in Washingon DC to want to subjugate Iran.

As I noted then, the bombing of Iran will mark the crossing of the rubicon for the empire, and will mark its steep decline. Get ready for $10/gallon gas. Need I point out that this country cannot run effectively on any price per gallon over or around $5?

By the way, the plans for the bourse are still moving along. The program is supposed to be established within a few months on Iran's Kish Island.

[Loveandlight]

Frak and felgercarb! I've already e-mailed my all-Dem congresspeople telling them they had better stand against this if they don't want the Dems to lose my vote forever. For all the bloody frakking good that will do. We are so very, very frakked.

[Anne]

So when should we all start paying attention?

[Idaho_Spud]

Uh actually this would be our *second* nuclear war. Ask any Japanes about the first one.