The Wheat and The Chaff

Both the Intentional Communities magazine and the Permaculture Activist magazine have upcoming "Peak Oil" issues. Granted the two undoubtedly overlap readership a bit, but still it's interesting to see that these movements are finally beginning to accept their calling.

And it serves to remind me about just how quickly the whole "Civilization in Crisis" meme is taking hold. Even a year ago--and certainly two years ago--it was impossible to find anyone in either the Peak Oil camp or the Intentional Community/Ecovillage camp who was aware of the potentially symbiotic future the two would hold. In fact I'd have to say in all honesty and humility that good ol' Deconsumption here was pretty much the first public medium to point to their convergence. Now it's almost a given....

Then we hear that even The Times is gingerly acquiescing toward an official admission that Peak Oil is "probably" real--but they still insist that it's waaaay off in the future, despite showing no authority on the topic whatsoever. Is it any wonder the true intelligentsia in this country doesn't read these rags any more? And let's not forget that in just the past year or so we've come to the point where even the White House can't stick to its "no global warming" schtick any longer. Instead they're just ignoring the conversation altogether.

So here's the thing. In the world I know, if you hear Google say that "clearly our growth rates are slowing", then by the time you can snap your eyes back to the tickertape you find the market has already taken the stock down 15%. And yet here we are today with a veritable sea-change in our assumptions about whether the future of our civilization and species is even viable and the best we can show for it is a (thoroughly misconstrued) doubling in the price of gasoline and heating fuels.

Doesn't this seem very, very curious to you?

That there are places in the world where even the far-off, over-generalized, conditional hint that perhaps things won't go as fantastically well in the future as they have been going so far brings about an immediate response and (over)reaction. But evidently that world only applies to the virtual ownership value of ridiculous companies that only float on a wink and a prayer of a business model. In the so-called Real World, however, we can watch the most dire of warnings go from "fringe" to "front page" in barely more than a year without so much as a snort from the corporate cubicle-monkeys who gather about the water-cooler to bemoan their failing fantasy football selections.

And it's not like the information isn't available, either. Because while we can justifiably rip on the faux journalists in today's mainstream news-mills, we can't pretend that there hasn't been ample opportunity for the average person to not only hear about the very real concerns our future holds but also find plenty of intelligent and rational information to help them understand what it all means to themselves and their way of life. And yet, practically nothing. Sure there's a relative increase in traffic to the various peak oil sites and several handfuls of people in Oregon trying to grow urban gardens, but where is the real concern, the real activism--defined not as conferences and protesting but simply as people becoming active in response to the situation. I certainly respect the great many people who have undertaken a more self-reliant way of living, and some of whom read this website, but what I'm speaking about is a more general movement within the broader society--nothing major, mind you, but at least something distinct and undeniable and which is specifically in response to the gravity of our situation.

In fact, I've said it before and I'll say it again: I have to wonder that the most significant feature of our present situation is the very fact that so few are responding. To my eye we're witnessing a remarkably fine separation or distillation of humanity, a separation not by such gross features as race, location, status or religion but rather a kind of guided selection of people based on their quality of being. This is purely speculation, I admit...but if I were reading our contemporary history as a book I would presume that events seem almost specially crafted to sift from the general mass a select type of people--those who are able to both recognize and take responsibility for adopting a more humble life in true service of the planet and each other. Individuals able to "repent" of the "sins" of modern civilization. Perhaps those who are meek enough to inherit the earth. In fact I'm not actually a Biblical man, but from a more objective point of view I'd have to see this as a winnowing of the "wheat" from the "chaff".

And I don't wish to imply that I believe that I'm special enough to include myself in this theoretical division. I'm only trying to remark that whether I'm included or not, and whether this speculation is valid or not, I have to marvel at the subtle nature of events in the world that could bring about within such a tiny period of historical time this aberrant "flourishing" of the human population, and then by the very same means (fossil-fuel energy) present a crisis seemingly designed to "skim off" the cream of that population--those able to recognize and align themselves with the requirements of the time. Now I realize I'm over-romanticising our situation, and certainly it's difficult to assume from where we're at right now that somehow only the people who learn permaculture, raise their own livestock, practice consensus government, and celebrate non-violence, asceticism and harmonious living will be around a hundred years from now. Yet it's difficult to argue anymore that these things form the now critical antidote to the sickness of modern Empire civilization, as well as a means for attending to and healing the planet. And curiously, at the same time they also form the blueprint by which we as individuals can most efficiently and gracefully face the challenges our future holds.

But please don't think from all this that I'm eager for the collapse to get going--because I haven't actually launched my lifeboat into the water yet, and when the realization sets in that the ship is sinking there won't be much opportunity left to even don a lifejacket. But I can say that I've been seriously and steadily organizing my life around doing so, getting my bags packed and in the boat and cutting the ropes that bind it to the listing vessel. And in plain honesty it's taken a long and patient effort to pay off my debts and to chart the best course, so to speak, into these unfamiliar waters. Also I have a wife and family to consider, which means I can't be too cavalier about anything--in fact I've spent the better part of two years simply trying to introduce the issue in as gradual and appropriate way as possible. But I have to admit that ultimately these seeming delays have only benefited me to make a more cautious and studied response than I would have made if I had been a single man. And all told, by the end of summer I hope to have transplanted our home, and both my wife and I are very happy with the decisions we've made and are eager to begin again.

Comments

Wow another great post. Your genius amazes me all the time.

thanks again

[George]

Steven,

You have been a wealth of good advice. It's time you started to take some of it to heart. You better get that lifeboat started, before it's too late!!

Start small, just start. You can always add on later, if still possible.

Get a piece of land (not too far away from civilization, with no zoning laws and preferable a southern exposure). Water(city or well) Buy an old motorhome with a generator, or a camper trailer. That will get you basic living space, plumbing, kitchen, bathroom, etc. Build a pole barn. Start a garden. Get some animals, (chickens, goats, donkeys, etc.) They will provide food, grounds maintenance and fertilizer. They can be left alone during the week with feeders and waterers.) Buy some good hand tools, and a good chainsaw for the begining. (you can cut a lot of wood with five gallons of gasoline)

I also found a good old wood fired cook stove, and have learned to use it.

I could go on, but the important thing is to just start. It is not necessary to wait to find the perfect place.

Thanks again for all of you great articles. I still check in several times a day for updates.

George

[Nathan]

As a 30 year old with two kids and about $60k+ in debt (student loans, car loans, credit cards) I couldn't agree more about not wanting anything to happen in the super near term.

HOWEVER!!!, I have this strange desire for SOMETHING to happen. I read this site for a number of reasons, but mainly because I feel enlightened by it and encouraged to keep up the good fight. Trying hard to get out of debt and deny myself and my family the silly little treats that put ALL of us Americans into debt, including the government. (Can we consider an invasion of another country a silly little treat? Let's do that, shall we?)

Keep posting Mr. Deconsumption, and wherever your lifeboat docks, please make sure you have a wireless connection. I would appreciate that.

From,
Mr. I LIVE IN LA AND MAKE A LIVING PUSHING CONSUMPTION, BUT I HAVE TO FEED MY BABIES FOR NOW, AND I WILL SEE YOU ALL ON THAT LIFEBOAT SOON ENOUGH.

[Mr. Cooper]

Mr. I Live in LA,

I'd like to respectfully give you the same advice George gave Stephen: get started.

To me, "SOMETHING" is already happening. Don't be lulled to sleep by the white noise of civilization. When the wheels come off the Impala the radio may still work.

It takes a lot of energy to dismantle an empire, and the subtle work will go on for years by the people currently in power.

But if "SOMETHING BIG" happens(which we all wish for at some point) you, and many others, will be in deep shit.

Anyhow, I'm not trying to chastise a fellow reader. In fact, even though your post is lighthearted, you sound like someone ready to thrive in the uncertain future, and I hope to find myself in the company of people like you down the road.

Nevertheless, ESCAPE FROM LA. Now!

[crz53]

Mr.I Live in LA,
Being in a similar situation, I understand where you're coming from.I think a lot of people who are coming to grips with the whole Peak Oil-can-of-worms find themselves caught in-between wanting "something big" to happen and realizing that they're nowhere close to being ready for "something big" to happen. I recently wrote a piece about that very topic on my blog "The Blank Page" (crz53.blogspot.com).
- Mike Lorenz

[Paula]

"But if "SOMETHING BIG" happens(which we all wish for at some point)"

No. Not everyone is cheering the collapse of civilization and the deaths of billions of people around the world. I would sooner see a shift to powerdown and a smooth ride down the back of Hubbert's Peak than to see the whole world go off the cliff and crash at the bottom.

[Aaron]

"But if "SOMETHING BIG" happens(which we all wish for at some point)"

I think this is talking about a desire to see the whole fake edifice we live in crumble and all the pointless pressures of civilisation melt away. Certainly something I feel. Of course the flip side is the death and destruction that goes with it and that's not something anyone is looking forward too,
I think a lot of people are going to feel kind of euphoric when all those chains fall away

[Mr. Cooper]

First, Paula, sorry for the blanket statement: "which we all wish for at some point". My apologies.

But regardless of whether our civilizations declines violently or steadily (which I'm guessing it'll be a mixture of both), the focus (or the light at the end of the tunnel) should be the emergence of a new kind of person, not the death toll.

Stephen, thanks for the post. I've been thinking about this process in parallel terms, but I've always referred to it internally as "The Golden Path", a term borrowed from the Dune books.

So, I'll finish, but if anybody wants to have a discussion on the parallels between Dune and our current situation...i'm so game.

[Jason DuMars]

Location, Location, Location...

I have spent a lot of time researching and visiting places to move to in preparation, and when all was said and done, I believe the best place in the US to weather PO is Forks, WA. The list of reasons is incredibly long, and I will gladly share them if anyone is interested. But here's a sample of what I am talking about:

http://catalog.lunsfordrealestate.com/index.php?action=listingview&listingID=63

I dream of starting a PO-aware collective up there. My wife and I have 5 acres on a river near Forks, and at least one of our nearby neighbors is peak-aware. I encourage everyone to jump on this before the land is all purchased.

[montysano]

Steven,

I've been hanging around deconsumption for a while now, and this is certainly one of your best posts. It touches on an issue that has been on my mind, to which you add some clarity: like you, I've got a wife, family, mortgage, pets, etc. to consider. So while my wife and I are reality based, we're leery of going off the deep end, moving to a trailer out in the hills, upsetting our children's lives, making them fearful of the future, only to discover 10 years down the road that........nothing much has changed. Civilization continues to lurch along, there's food at the grocery store and gas at the pumps, and Walmart still has Everyday Low Prices.

It's even more complicated because of ego. Years from now, I don't want my kids to think their dad was some tinfoil hat freak who disrupted their lives for nothing.

OTOH, I'm pretty sure that Something Big is out there on the horizon. Maybe it's because I'm a former resident of New Orleans (and Lord, we loved it down there, and Lord, our hearts are truly broken), but for my wife and I it was Katrina, not 9-11, that signalled the start of something new. Or maybe the end of what came before. In any case, Katrina brought into sharp relief both the lack of visionary leadership (hell, of just plain leadership) and the lack of resources that is the reality of our present day. Much of what we've taken for granted is now non-functional, and will not be fixed.

So there's my dilemma. Like too many blog posts, I present only problems and am woefully short on solutions.

Still, though, we're debt free, have good health, and have some experience living the rural hippie life. We could do without just about anything except our broadband Net connection 8-)

[nulinegvgv]

Steve,

In "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance” Robert Pirsig talks about an inalienable quality that transcends the relative sense of quality often bantered about in phrases like beauty is in the eye of the beholder. He doesn’t argue against that specific point but says rather that there is a deeper, greater quality inherent in some things and not in others. Please excuse my paraphrasing as it has been a few years since last I read this book but Pirsig says that if a society takes a wrong turn away from this pursuit of quality then at a certain point the society dead-ends and regresses back to the point from which it deviated. At this point it begins again to move in the direction of quality. These are overarching concepts not to be viewed through too tight a lens. Pirsig is thought to have gone crazy doing so but his ideas would seem to help explain what is happening and perhaps provide a window into what might happen in the future. If so then the questions are:

When did we stray from the pursuit of deeper quality?
Where- was it in a specific place?
How far will we fall back?
Will those who pursue this quality be better off during the crash?
Will they be better off after the crash?
What is this quality?
How can we convey this information to those in the future to prevent more straying?

Some ancient cultures talk about the legend of the condor and the eagle. The condor is all things spiritual and the eagle is all things material. Legend has it that the eagles will lead for a long time and almost wreck the place but eventually the condors will again show the world how to ask questions like “should we” and not just “can we”. Again, paraphrasing.

[Steven Lagavulin]

montysano,

Don't be too hard on yourself...you're in the same place as everyone else on this planet who is at least half-awake. We DON'T know what the future holds for certain, and so we can't really know what the best actions or preparations would be. This is the basic nature of life here on good old planet Earth. But I'd suggest that that's actually a very GOOD place to be. It means you're in question, which means you're open to learning and acting in new ways. "Having answers" generally means we've closed ourselves off, since we believe we already know what's best and don't need to learn or do anything differently.

I know I'm sort of contradicting what I just posted, but not really. It's questions that put us in movement, and "answers" that keep us rooted in place. So as long as you keep your inner struggle going, and not try to calm it or forget it, you'll be making movements in the right direction--and that's the most important thing, even though it's probably hard not to feel those movements are too small to be of any benefit. But what I was lamenting in this post was that I don't see that very many people ARE in question about anything. Even many people who quote/unquote "know" about Peak Oil and such still seem to believe that all the answers they had yesterday will still be valid tomorrow. So actually, I think what we really need as a society is a good, strong dose of "being thrown into question"...

[Gryphon]

Steve, you wrote:

"And it's not like the information isn't available, either. Because while we can justifiably rip on the faux journalists in today's mainstream news-mills, we can't pretend that there hasn't been ample opportunity for the average person to not only hear about the very real concerns our future holds but to also find plenty of intelligent and rational information to help them understand what it all means to themselves and their way of life. And yet, practically nothing."

You're right! And I think Stephen Leeb does a fantastic job of laying out why in his latest book 'The Coming Economic Collapse', which is a follow-up to his other excellent book 'The Oil Factor'. What it comes down to is groupthink fostered by Wall Street and then echochambered by the MSM that oil and cheap energy will always be there so there's nothing to fear. Life will keep on rolling along as it always has been.

I've been suspicious of the MSM for a long time now and I simply no longer buy the snakeoil they're selling. But I have to wonder how many of these so-called journalists are secretly planning for Peak Oil in the background.

After much research and discussion with my family, we decided to sell our home in L.A. and just bought a place on 13 acres in rural Northern California for about half the price. We are now effectively out of debt with enough left over to invest in efficiencies as well as alternative energy and permaculture systems. The remainder we'll invest in our own business as well as precious metals.

The big change will come about by people telling people -- not from any actions of the mainstream media. IMHO, most people are just plain stupid, so obviously, not everyone is going to act in time. For those who aren't completely clueless though, they are starting to notice that a paradigm shift is now underway.

[Mr. I Live in LA]

As a quick retort, I would agree that deaths in the billions are not on my wish list as far as wanting SOMETHING to happen. It's more in line with a romantic return to the earth, a William Morris-ian downsizing of everything, each and every one of us. (Obviously romantic because I am still behind the curve in terms of surviving, should something happen. The romance dies upon the arrival of something tragic.)
True, I am wholly unprepared, but learning, and growing, and from what I can tell, the quickest escape route is the path that my family is on.
Sorry if I've turned this into a Consumers Anonymous meeting. Thanks for your support.
Mr. I Live in LA...

[Cornfed]

What will likely happen over the next few years is that the opportunities to make a living in working stiff fashion will continue to gravitate towards the main centers, causing the sheeple to cluster there. Gradually their circumstances will worsen to the point where they are working like mad just to pay the rent and buy their daily bowl of millet, and then finally they'll starve. This setup will function as the perfect sheeple-trap: On the one hand, the end result of the process is death, but on the other hand it will demonstrably worsen their condition in the short term to leave the process at any point. This will be enough to keep them in the game and seal their fate. Meanwhile, most of the countryside, at least in the West, will become an untouched wilderness that those of us who return to nature will be able to make use of.

For people, the idea would be to exit the process described above ASAP. For most, this would involve reducing your expenses and responsibilities to the point where you require little money and then finding a way to obtain that money in a flexible fashion outside of city limits while being prepared to become a hunter-gatherer at any time. It would be helpful to this cause not to take on encumbrances like marriages, children, mortgages etc.

On the subject of the desirability of the sheeple all starving to death, I think it represents the best of a bad situation. If some technofix were to enable them to survive it would just allow them to wreck the rest of the biosphere before dying off at a later date, and I personally see no value in another generation of human locusts persisting in their undead state at the expense of everything else. Besides which, they suck.

[George]

Perhaps I did not make my point very well. I did not mean to abandon your current life, to start your lifeboat. I still have my place in the city (80 miles away), and my job, and I have really worked down my debt.

I started 20 years ago with a camper trailer and 3 acres of land. No water, no electricity. Purchased on an installment sale contract. $125/month for 10 years.

I drive to work every Monday morning, and return every Friday afternoon.

I started because I wanted a place totally paid for before I retired. A place with a garden and some space, where I could try to approach being self-sufficient.

The point I was trying to make, is to go ahead and start. Chances are that the land will only go up in value, or maintain its value relative to the rest of the economy.
What's to loose?

George

[SurvivalAcres]

I no longer accept the ecovillage model as being valid. It's too late for that. They will be serious targets when the inevitable collapse occurs. Decline is a fact of life, there's nothing we can do about it except figure out how to survive it. This is where the village falls short, unfortunately. You might say, the time for the village is already past.

Everyone (that's paying attention) seems to agree that collapse is on it's merry way, we only disagree (slightly) how to endure the collapse. There won't be much room in the future for those who aren't prepared to deal with mob mentality.

[Mike]

"Doesn't this seem very, very curious to you?"
Yes it does and one of the reason that I'm still not positive that the "Peak Oil" business is for real in the sense it is portrayed on many websites, etc. Not trying to put Steve down or anyone that has added comments, because the situation as a whole does seem to indicate that something "Not Good" is coming down the pipe. And so although I don't ascribe my change, which is similar to the way of thinking about what life is and how to live it reflected in comments and Steve's posts, all to "Peak Oil" (was one of the initial things to get me thinking) what Steve wrote in a comment "So as long as you keep your inner struggle going, and not try to calm it or forget it, you'll be making movements in the right direction--and that's the most important thing, even though it's probably hard not to feel those movements are too small to be of any benefit. But what I was lamenting in this post was that I don't see that very many people ARE in question about anything." and what he writes in the overall posts keeps me coming back. Thanks Steve.

[technofreak]

I tend to agree with your theory Steve. It does appear that only a select few are sensitive to what is the best required actions under the current environment(s).

I have been aware of this for quite some time now and have already taken steps to minimise my life. Many positive things have come from doing this and I have gained rather than lost quality of life.

I have also been watching those around me very closely. I have been observing their lives unfold over the last 5 years. I have watched them all age quickly and decline in quality of life. Some have gained the financial benefits we often measure our success against, yet their personal life has suffered and most suffer from unhappiness. Many consistently act with unecessary stupidity and cause much of their own grief.

I will be watching some more as things unfold to see if any of them become aware of the situation or simply drop off the cliff. I dont hold much hope as they seem to go further in the wrong direction as the impending signs loom in their faces.

Glen.

[rational thought]

Steve and others, please read my following thoughts as an attempt at constructive criticism. I do not attempt to attack or disparage your ideas, I am simply attempting to organise and propound rational concepts in the scenario proposed.

I am of the firm opinion that there is an increasingly common psychological state amongst some males, which I will term the "Log Cabin Psychosis".

The primary symptoms of the Log Cabin Psychosis are a deep-seated belief that a cataclysmic event is about to happen, and the primeval need to be a "hero" to one's family, a "real man", to look after the little woman and kids.

Every father imagines himself in this situation from time to time, but the psychosis can take hold and develop in those not appropriately attuned to self-analysis. Constant and incisive self-analysis of one's mental state is vitally necessary for one's ongoing mental health.

Look, 16 of the 19 posts above mine clearly identify themselves as male, and I would bet pounds to peanuts that the remaining three gender-unspecific posters are also male. The Log Cabin Psychosis simply doesn't occur to the females of the species.

Now, let us assume that there is an apocalyptic event in the near future, be it war, pestilence, starvation, global warming, Peak Oil, or whatever.

As Steve's post is related to Peak Oil, I will confine my comments to that issue.

A belief that we are suddenly, as a society, going to run out of oil, is (with the greatest possible respect) a complete and utter crock. This belief totally ignores market forces. Let me make this point quite clear: We are NEVER going to run out of oil - it is far too important.

If the arguments surrounding Peak Oil are true, then what we are going to see is a market reallocation of oil. If it is in demand, it will become more expensive, until such time as (decreasing?) supply meets demand on the market.

We will never run out of oil - the market will make certain of this.

What we may see is that oil products become relatively more expensive as demand grows and supply shrinks. What this means is that the poor will be affected first, then the middle class, and then the wealthy.

If, in this Apocalyptic vision, there is to be a deep recession or Depression, then it is going to be NOTHING like what the world has experienced in the past.

You have all seen pictures of the Great Depression (1929-1936). Lines of men in suits and hats around the block waiting patiently for food or food stamps or welfare checks.

This will not happen in the New Depression. We have had too many years of the "Me Generation", where a belief in rights has abrogated basic societal responsibilities. No, in the New Depression, the poor and dispossessed will not wait patiently in line - they will want their basic necessities RIGHT here, RIGHT now, and if the gubbmint doesn't provide, then they will take what they need (or perceive they may require, like plasma TV's).

They will take what they need from YOU - be it generators, animals, crops, medicines, whatever - they will take it by FORCE.

They will take it by force wherever you may want to set up your Log Cabin - the cities will become police and military quagmires, and there will be an outpouring of the poor and dispossessed from the cities into rural areas as a matter of survival.

How do you propose to defend your Log Cabins?

Will you arm yourselves, and be willing to shoot trespassers?

Are you willing to kill in order to protect your Log Cabin?

Are you willing to kill to protect someone else's Log Cabin in your cozy environmentally-friendly eco-village?

Or, do you share your belongings with the unfortunates who have just turned up on your door-step?

My professional analysis of the Log Cabin Psychosis leads me to suspect that the last option above would not be applied by the devotees.

Let us all hope that the status quo keeps on keeping on.