The Most Important Thing You Don't Know About "Peak Oil"

“When nothing happens for a long time, people begin to assume that nothing ever happens. But, sooner or later, something always happens.” -- Steven Lagavulin

There's an aspect to the concept of "Peak Oil" which I don't believe is sufficiently grasped by people following the subject. It's the understanding that the most dangerous aspect we face is not really the state of the resource itself--the actual "Peak" dates or depletion rates, or any of the physical realities of oil supply/demand--but rather the reaction in the oil markets upon realization that these issues are no longer even important.

For instance, a few days ago I referenced the article GlobalCorp, because I felt Michael C. Ruppert did a fantastic job 'connecting the dots' of world/politcal events occurring over just the past few months. What he showed is that, regardless of whether Peak Oil has any reality to it or not, what is important now is that the powers of the world are absolutely steering the course of the planet by this star. As such, the events now destined to unfold over just the next year or so are acquiring a momentum of their own, setting us on an intractable course of global conflict and warfare. This is the reality, as I see it, of what is happening right now, regardless of when any theoretical "Peak Year" may have been reached.

Should the oil markets themselves begin to 'connect these dots', then all our lives are going to be impacted violently and immediately. The commodity traders for various interested firms live solely by anticipating conditions and events, not by debating them and verifying them. The old mantra is, you "buy the rumor, sell the news". This is the reason you'll never see "Peak Oil" covered by a respected media outlet. Because as soon as it is recognized that for all practical purposes the situation is already upon us, then a fast and viscious "resource grab" will be initiated. The price of oil in the markets will begin to rise dramatically. This will initiate a circular hedging / hording mentality in large end-users, governments, and multi-nationals. This will then have a myriad of devastating effects, but all average Joe Consumer is going to notice is that the price at the pump will experience a brief and dramatic blip upward, gas lines will form for a short time at the corner-stations, and then suddenly the corner gas-stations will go dry altogether...perhaps getting a few sporadic deliveries, but more likely simply for good. Gasoline will not be available to individual drivers, as precedence is given to heating oil, critical government and commercial uses, public transportation, transport of food and goods, etc. How the situation unfolds after that you can imagine just as well as I....

If this scenario sounds over-dramatic, keep in mind that what I'm talking about is a dawning recognition of something that many analysts have already come to realize: that the "oil grab" is in fact already on, that it's not a temporary 'bottleneck' or passing 'shock', and that the losers in this game will not survive. A global game of 'blind man's bluff' is underway, with all the players pleading ignorance of the issue for as long as possible so they can get their pieces in place...all the while anxiously watching for the first itchy-trigger finger that's going to set the whole thing off.

This is the reason I highlighted Michael Ruppert's last article. I believe that just as he is stating, the debate over "Peak Oil" itself is already over. It no longer matters whether it is proven or disproven, because there isn't time left to do either. Events in the world are revealing to us the only truth that matters: that a desperate resource war is emergent, one that will not be won by trade sanctions, blustering, or corporate bargaining. This is the only issue which should now be under scrutiny by those who strive to stay "ahead of the curve". No one questions why the U.S. is occupying the Middle-East: the Administration is there for the oil. But the true gravity of the situation is only scarcely beginning to come to light. The 'markets' have already accepted the long-term "bull market" in oil prices due to increasing demand. What they don't accept yet (or understand) is the mounting "supply" problem. When this begins to dawn on them, and it could absolutely happen as quickly as within the next few months, then seemingly overnight the world will start to come apart at the seams. Keep in mind that we're not talking about the acceptance of oil depletion among the 'general public'; the individuals comprising 'the oil markets' are people who follow the industry intimately, and who know all the latest news and rumors. They know about (quote/unquote) "Peak Oil". What they have not quite done is to connect all the dots....

The world powers are positioning themselves for war. The war is over who can take the most oil. If you don't recognize this, then I urge you to read over Ruppert's article and get a sense for the types of events and stories which form the "dots" he has been connecting. Then begin paying close attention to world news (not "politics", but real events). Begin to discern what the various strategic actions being taken by the countries of the world indicate. Perhaps I am wrong. Maybe I've misread the situation. Verify everything for yourself.

I also want to very sincerely relate that I am not saying any of this to stir up fear or anxiety in anyone. In truth, nothing about the future can be known with certainty. What I am trying to do is to communicate my own recognition that the time for action is now upon us. We can no longer debate who's right and who's wrong. We can no longer hope for what the next election might bring. We can't assume that somehow a 'gradual transition' will be effected, because it is never going to happen that way. Certainly there will be efforts among the global powers to calm the markets in various ways...perhaps some of these will ameliorate matters. But ultimately, in our own lives, just as on the world stage, whoever does not act now will soon find they have already lost the game.

So what action should be taken? What can anyone do to confront the course of events? Sadly, I don't have the answers. But I am trying to work things out. I believe that the only hope of changing things is by building a consensus among people. This needs to happen very quickly, and it will only happen when people are no longer content to just grumble about things, comfortable in the assumption that nothing is going to happen...at least, not anytime soon...and certainly not today....

Also, those who secretly long for the coming collapse will be in for a shock. The initial oil shortage, when it does come, will certainly be a serious inconvenience, but the events which proceed after that are going to humble us all to the core.

Admittedly, I don't believe that any one of us can voluntarily change events of this magnitude...but I do think we have an obligation to live as though we can.

Comments

[John C]

I've heard that a lot of cynics say that nothing stands to replace our society's dependance on oil. While it may be true that we don't have the infrastructure required to allievate the worlds dependence on oil to the tune of 93 million barrels a day (and climbing), who here really believes that we are using that amount in an efficient manner to begin with? Hell, I run into all kinds of internet sites that showcase engines and other powerplants which are touted as staggeringly more efficient then that which we currently rely on. Now, ask yourself why we have not implemented something remotely like them by now? I mean, what is the reason for the major stalling!? Is it because these technologies don't truly exist? Or are they actually too costly to build initially thereby rendering them, in terms of total energy spent, more costly than that which we already have, like some say? I think not. And I think I know why our fearless leaders are obviously dragging their feet on the energy "crisis" issue. I personally think that we are caught in a game. The game goes something like this (however abbreviated and restricted to just this one simple facet I came up with (( which isn't much)):
Oil, as it is currently relied on, is the modern world's life blood. What happens if you increase the ability of work that this life blood can accomplish by 2x, 3x, 5x, etc, simply increasing efficiency? Among other things, it will cheapen it drastically (a major detractor for corporations in itself) which will in turn increase the tide in which more people may be brought into the world. It may sound strange to some of you, but that's what we do -- we multiply when times are good and there is room to *ahem* procreate. Think about how we literally do need oil, among other things (of course), to support an ever growing population. OK... now go ahead and guess what the world's elite don't want. That's right -- a fat, bloated world population. We've all heard and talked about it. They know, as well as any educuated person should, that there is an Malthusian breaking point out there... a point that, if not closely looked for and avioded, will occur. When it does, all kinds of undesirable problems can occur, including STAGNATION. So, you know what I think -- I think that they just don't that, plain and simple! I believe that they believe that this type of scenario is a potential threat to their world primacy, and that's what this is all about -- "them." SO... what will our leaders do about the imminent energy crisis? Well, they won't allieviate it, that much I know! They believe that the human life 'bubble' will eventually have to burst -- either naturally through disease or disasters or... with 'help'. As far as what someone ^ else said about starting another war or releasing a pandemic to "thin the ranks" ...I think that these are real and ideal options for the global elites as well. In all probablility, these roads have already been traveled long ago. The elites are animals who don't care about life and their worshiping of the "Cremation of Care" caught on tape in California speaks volumes of their morality. I personally believe that the Skull and Boners have something very nasty in store for all of us. But like any other peaceful person, I hope I am seriously wrong.

Does anyone think the same? Don't chastise me too badly if you think that I'm wrong -- I'm just theorizing...

[Ann]

I come from China,may I make friend with you .

[Bob H]

I have one comment. Get out of debt NOW. If you do that alone, you will be OK.

[John Croft]

Reading all the comments here of peak oil makes me aware how narrowly individualistic they are. Cuba is one of the few places that has already experienced a "peak oil" crisis, and they have coped remarkably well. Havana is the first city of the world since the fall of Teotihuacan, Cuzco and Aztec Mexico that actually export more food than they consume from their neighbouring regions - unlike the parasitic cities we have built in the rest of the world, based upon the Mesopotamian model of a city exploiting its hinterland. It can be done.... But not with people heading for the hills with their guns and ammunition (how very American that sounds!). It cannot be done individually, there are collective community by community based decisions that need to be made. Talk about self-fulfilling prophecies!

Regarding slavery, the USA already has 2.5 million slaves, people incarcerated in jail, working on contracts issued by prison authorities and doing work for which they are not paid - it is all above board. And the majority of these slaves are black! No wonder that building prisons is the biggest growth industry in the USA at the moment. No wonder the Austhorities are looking at the Australian solution to dealing with the 25 million "illegal" Latino and other migrants - and incarcerating such people. Another form of legalised slavery! You don't have to wait for post peak oil for such things - the worldwide anti-slavery movement indicates that the number of slaves in the world is increasing for the first time since the 1940s and the slave labour camps of Nazi Germany.

And regarding the post about the Roman Empire - yes, this would seem to be a temporary possibility. But the Roman Empire at its height had a population of 50 million, supporting a city that had a population of 1 million. That is less than 1/5th the population of the USA. Are you planning a megadeath of 4/5ths of the US population here? And remember that the Roman Empire was based upon a resource base that was far larger per capita than that we have, as we exhaust easily accessible resources and minerals. The Roman Empire began to run an economic deficit from the end of the 2nd century, when it failed to produce enough to pay for its imports, and there was a steady leaching of Roman Gold and Silver to the East. The collapse of the Spanish silver mines meant that Rome was forced back to a subsistence economy in the 3rd and 4th centuries, long before its final collapse.

Perhaps, as Amercan soldiers walk the streets of ruined Iraqi Babylon - the largest city of the world in its day, they can remember that this is likely to be the fate of their own cities. I too remember the rivers of Babylon....

For it will be in the legends and stories of the few that survive that industrial civilisation will be remembered, of our waste and greed, our fear and hatred that will be remembered the most, as they try to understand how we through our pride and selfishness arrived at this situation.

Good luck on the descending elevator.... I hope it can be a "powered descent" for you all.

For the Earth

[it's me]

Sorry everyone. The end isn't even close. We're still on the leading edge of the argarian revolution which is what civilization really is. It's going to get much much more crowded before it winds down and when that happens it will come with a whisper not a bang. All species populate up to and slightly in excess of the available food supply. We're just begining the process of aqua farming. Sure we will eventually wipe out most other species, but we have several thousand more years. The world you were born into and seen degraded in just your life time will continue to sustain future generations who will be born, see what appear to be dramatic degradations, sagely predict the end and then pass on only to be succeeded by the next group etc. Don't worry, be happy.

[Ryan]

How are people going to bicycle in the winter when there's snow on the ground? One major snowstorm could leave people immobile for days, even weeks.

[Ahavah]

So, basically you're saying that Bush decided it was easier to invade Iraq than take on the Sierra Club? We have plenty of oil for our own most pressing needs. Not personal automobiles - you're right about that. But most other needs can be met perfectly well with the reserves we have while electric trolleys/streetcars/light rail, etc. are substituted for personal cars. So why isn't Bush & Co. drilling in Alaska and the Gulf instead of wasting tons of gas transporting everything and everyone to Iraq? Seems to me the Sierra Club would have been a much easier target.

[bla bla bla]

who gives a shit, buy and electric car, and put a fire place in your house...ha I already have a fire place...Fuck the gas company. How will it affect us? The gas price will keep going up until the market itself will force an alternative...you know that, come on! Stop freakin out, ya'll must be American! LOL

[Neil B.]

What can be done to keep "commodities traders" from hoarding resources and thus driving up prices beyond "the fundamentals"? As of my late comment posting, this is in evident full force right now. A sales tax on all such transactions?

[Mark B]

I think it may be time to nationalize the oil industry and open up new reserves off the continental U.S. and elswere. I think also it may be time to take a isolationist policy in regards to the relationship we have with the rest of the world. We need to cut our loses and worry about our own people and energy infrastructure and stop investing off shore. If your going to invest off shore invest in a giant under water oil deposit and sell the oil here not over in china, india europe and elswere it is a finite resource and we need to start voicing our ideas and oppositions to policies in Washington. Get off your asses and write your congressmen repeatedly and immediately!

[Rongorito]

God. I'm only 15 reading this and all I can say is how are we supposed to ever feel happy or good knowing we brang this upon ourselves? It's such a sad fact that life as we know it will come to an end but hey, if that's the way it is I can accept that.

[Mark B]

Hey Mr. Rongorito 15 civilized humans have historically taken two steps forward three steps back. The U.S. Government also has historically waited to the last possible moment to do what is necessary for the future of its people, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that the oil companies are being restricted from drilling in certain, or should I say many oil rich deposits domestically. The fact of the matter is is that we need to build more refineries and find and develop more domestic supplies. Having said this I am not pro oil companies in fact I hold some animosity towards them, they have hindered progress directly and indirectly in the fields of battery advancements and hydrogen generation technologies, since we depend on them for so much don't you all think it would be logical to say until we make the necessary breakthroughs in new energy generation platforms which allow for the proliferation of hydrogen and batteries (among other things,SOLAR)capable of powering electric vehicles that we must have a strong economy? This means a strong energy infrastructure (for now oil and nuclear)and a sense of urgency to use the oil we have left to help facilitate the phase over to said transportation, infrastructures, and energy generation technologies on a mass scale, without a strong base (oil)we will surely fail. So write your congressmen my fellow fat lazy Americans and try to get them of their fat lazy asses.

[Truth. (Humanity's helper)]

The simple answer that humans need, has been hidden for many many years.

I will tell you the truth plainly.

The answer is that there is more than enough energy in ordinary tap water to replace fuel. Water can power cars and homes and aeroplanes easily! It can power heaps of things.

All that is needed is a small amount of electricity which converts water to Hydrogen and Oxygen then these gases are burnt together as a fuel to run an engine for cars or a generator for homes just like LPG (Natural Gas) runs an engine.

There is no pollution either!

It really works and anyone can build the device to do it for less than $200 U.S.

The answer is water! It's been here all along for centuries, right in front of us and part of us!

Using energy from water will reduce heaps of un-necessary pollution and will get rid of this whole un-necessary oil/drama that the world is facing.

Water is the answer, look it up on the internet.

Water has all the energy human kind needs!

There is no need for any wars over energy ever!

[lightspeed]

The buy guns stockpile food brigade have got it all wrong. The rich will still have everything they need and the rest will live like things were in pre 1900. People lived and did not kill each other because they did not have a plasma TV. The Romans did not have oil and they conquered the known world as did many empires prior. What good will guns be when there is no electricity to make bullets? People will just get poorer and poorer. Maybe we will all eat what we need instead of throwong away enough food each week to feed a nation.

It will take two generations for the full changes to happen. Just learn to expect less. In Europe car fuel is $12 per gallon and society still works, perhaps even better than in the US. It took 400 years for the Roman empire to decline.

[MIKE]

Looks Like a Whole New World is coming Dont Worry there BE PLENTY FOR THE PEOPLE WHO SURVIVE IF YOU LIVE IN A BIG CITY THERE WILL BE CHAOS BEYOND YOUR IMAGINATION. BUT A COUNTRY BOY CAN SURVIVE. Good luck to all