The Most Important Thing You Don't Know About "Peak Oil"

“When nothing happens for a long time, people begin to assume that nothing ever happens. But, sooner or later, something always happens.” -- Steven Lagavulin

There's an aspect to the concept of "Peak Oil" which I don't believe is sufficiently grasped by people following the subject. It's the understanding that the most dangerous aspect we face is not really the state of the resource itself--the actual "Peak" dates or depletion rates, or any of the physical realities of oil supply/demand--but rather the reaction in the oil markets upon realization that these issues are no longer even important.

For instance, a few days ago I referenced the article GlobalCorp, because I felt Michael C. Ruppert did a fantastic job 'connecting the dots' of world/politcal events occurring over just the past few months. What he showed is that, regardless of whether Peak Oil has any reality to it or not, what is important now is that the powers of the world are absolutely steering the course of the planet by this star. As such, the events now destined to unfold over just the next year or so are acquiring a momentum of their own, setting us on an intractable course of global conflict and warfare. This is the reality, as I see it, of what is happening right now, regardless of when any theoretical "Peak Year" may have been reached.

Should the oil markets themselves begin to 'connect these dots', then all our lives are going to be impacted violently and immediately. The commodity traders for various interested firms live solely by anticipating conditions and events, not by debating them and verifying them. The old mantra is, you "buy the rumor, sell the news". This is the reason you'll never see "Peak Oil" covered by a respected media outlet. Because as soon as it is recognized that for all practical purposes the situation is already upon us, then a fast and viscious "resource grab" will be initiated. The price of oil in the markets will begin to rise dramatically. This will initiate a circular hedging / hording mentality in large end-users, governments, and multi-nationals. This will then have a myriad of devastating effects, but all average Joe Consumer is going to notice is that the price at the pump will experience a brief and dramatic blip upward, gas lines will form for a short time at the corner-stations, and then suddenly the corner gas-stations will go dry altogether...perhaps getting a few sporadic deliveries, but more likely simply for good. Gasoline will not be available to individual drivers, as precedence is given to heating oil, critical government and commercial uses, public transportation, transport of food and goods, etc. How the situation unfolds after that you can imagine just as well as I....

If this scenario sounds over-dramatic, keep in mind that what I'm talking about is a dawning recognition of something that many analysts have already come to realize: that the "oil grab" is in fact already on, that it's not a temporary 'bottleneck' or passing 'shock', and that the losers in this game will not survive. A global game of 'blind man's bluff' is underway, with all the players pleading ignorance of the issue for as long as possible so they can get their pieces in place...all the while anxiously watching for the first itchy-trigger finger that's going to set the whole thing off.

This is the reason I highlighted Michael Ruppert's last article. I believe that just as he is stating, the debate over "Peak Oil" itself is already over. It no longer matters whether it is proven or disproven, because there isn't time left to do either. Events in the world are revealing to us the only truth that matters: that a desperate resource war is emergent, one that will not be won by trade sanctions, blustering, or corporate bargaining. This is the only issue which should now be under scrutiny by those who strive to stay "ahead of the curve". No one questions why the U.S. is occupying the Middle-East: the Administration is there for the oil. But the true gravity of the situation is only scarcely beginning to come to light. The 'markets' have already accepted the long-term "bull market" in oil prices due to increasing demand. What they don't accept yet (or understand) is the mounting "supply" problem. When this begins to dawn on them, and it could absolutely happen as quickly as within the next few months, then seemingly overnight the world will start to come apart at the seams. Keep in mind that we're not talking about the acceptance of oil depletion among the 'general public'; the individuals comprising 'the oil markets' are people who follow the industry intimately, and who know all the latest news and rumors. They know about (quote/unquote) "Peak Oil". What they have not quite done is to connect all the dots....

The world powers are positioning themselves for war. The war is over who can take the most oil. If you don't recognize this, then I urge you to read over Ruppert's article and get a sense for the types of events and stories which form the "dots" he has been connecting. Then begin paying close attention to world news (not "politics", but real events). Begin to discern what the various strategic actions being taken by the countries of the world indicate. Perhaps I am wrong. Maybe I've misread the situation. Verify everything for yourself.

I also want to very sincerely relate that I am not saying any of this to stir up fear or anxiety in anyone. In truth, nothing about the future can be known with certainty. What I am trying to do is to communicate my own recognition that the time for action is now upon us. We can no longer debate who's right and who's wrong. We can no longer hope for what the next election might bring. We can't assume that somehow a 'gradual transition' will be effected, because it is never going to happen that way. Certainly there will be efforts among the global powers to calm the markets in various ways...perhaps some of these will ameliorate matters. But ultimately, in our own lives, just as on the world stage, whoever does not act now will soon find they have already lost the game.

So what action should be taken? What can anyone do to confront the course of events? Sadly, I don't have the answers. But I am trying to work things out. I believe that the only hope of changing things is by building a consensus among people. This needs to happen very quickly, and it will only happen when people are no longer content to just grumble about things, comfortable in the assumption that nothing is going to happen...at least, not anytime soon...and certainly not today....

Also, those who secretly long for the coming collapse will be in for a shock. The initial oil shortage, when it does come, will certainly be a serious inconvenience, but the events which proceed after that are going to humble us all to the core.

Admittedly, I don't believe that any one of us can voluntarily change events of this magnitude...but I do think we have an obligation to live as though we can.

Comments

[J. Puma]

great post, w/some excellent points!

[petegala]

Might I suggest www.inthewake.org as a resource for surviving the crash?

It's a start, anyway. I'd imagine if we can learn, in our communities and neighborhoods, to live an agrarian lifestyle much like Cuba, we'd stand a better chance of surviving.

[Kevin Carson]

After an economic crash, the corporate money pimps in the U.S. government may well find that the new bankruptcy "reform" is a dead letter. If they think they can force half the U.S. population into Chapter 13 debt slavery when most people with large credit card balances declare bankruptcy, they may be surprised.

Same goes for attempts to evict people who default on mortgages and rent: when it affects a majority of the people and some of them start banding together to resist the sheriff, there's a pretty good chance that absentee landlordism (including that of the bank) will be a thing of the past.

Of course, the power elites probably have some inkling of this themselves. So don't be too surprised if there's a dirty bomb, or a smallpox outbreak, or some other "terrorist" attack that can be used to justify herding large numbers of people into easily controllable processing centers, conscripting labor, etc.

On the other hand, I don't think the U.S. government could maintain control of the population by such means for very long. And they probably suspect this themselves. So there will be a countervailing temptation on their part to keep reassuring themselves that things aren't quite at the point of no return, they still have a chance of pulling it out without full-blown martial law....

We may be saved by the fact that the elite is as prone to boiled frog syndrome as we are.

[DigitalDjigit]

Yes, good point about those who long for collapse. I secretly hope for it just for things to get shaken up and to show all those people just how wrong their lifestyle is. But then I've been realising more and more lately how many conveniences I take for granted that may not be avaialable later on. it's not gonna be pretty for anyone.

[mikey]

the whole peak oil "movement" has been characterized by talk. All talk, no action. Except for the part of individuals(like me) who have decided to prepare for the worst.

[Big Gav]

"This is the reason you'll never see "Peak Oil" covered by a respected media outlet."

Good post, but I can't agree with this point - I think most major media outlets have at least mentioned peak Oil and/or Hubbert's Peak by now (certainly in Australia its been a front page article in the Financial Review and got at least one article in all other major papers).

Admittedly, no one is quoting dieoff.org, FTW or Matt Savinar.

And as you say, there has been a lot of manouevring done already - for example, if you watched the action in the futures markets you would have noticed a lot of investment banks getting set for 3-4 years down the track...

[Jan Steinman]

Actually, Mat Savinar was recently quoted ON THE FLOOR OF THE US CONGRESS by Rep Bartlett. See my letter to my rep: http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2005/03/313679.shtml

And a different Bartlett also mentioned Peak Oil -- there was an entire episode of The West Wing entitled Hubbert's Peak. Too bad they trivialized it by having different factions (wind, solar, hydrogen, etc.) fighting with each other: http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story?id=19226

[Bio WillyB]

"So what action should be taken? What can anyone do to confront the course of events? ... I believe that the only hope of changing things is by building a consensus among people. This needs to happen very quickly, and it will only happen when people are no longer content to just grumble about things..."
OK, here is a powerful, practical and exciting course of action that individuals can take right now and it's right under our noses. BIODIESEL will power any diesel engine and it can be (and is being) made by individuals at home, by local collectives and on a national level. Oil crops can be (and are being) grown in the heartland of this beautiful land of ours and the fuel thus produced can power the tractors used to till the land and the trucks needed to bring the product to the rest of us. It is made from either used or virgin vegetable oil (canola or soy) by a relatively simple process. We can tell the big oil corps where to stuff it and smile as we drive down the road knowing that we are no longer dependent on them OR their wars!

[Gunnar Henrioulle, Associate, Tahoe Valley Lines]

Biodiesel/gold & silver coins/hoarded goods have one thing in common; they put the holder at risk if most of the population around is not so prescient. Here is a larger policy level approach, but key to preventing collapse. We're all done for, and the prepared ones most at risk early on, in a general collapse. So listen to Grampa for once. One BIG critical thing is maintenance of Societal COHESION, here we focus on the transport network.

Essential goods, victuals, and day-to-day supplies & people must be able to move unimpeded. The USA still has the ways and means of maintaining mobility, on a rebuilt and expanded 1920's-50's railway network, linked to renewables and domestic source energy. This network is currently about 1/2 the reach needed, and 1/3 the capacity, to maintain economic viability and barebones mobility. Rather than saying it's too late, and giving up, we can do several things at the individual level, along with the gold, guns and grits. Certainly any college educated person or high school student can research their local area's railway footprint, including former branchlines, interurban electric line, etc. Thomas Bros. maps of the 50's will show downtown warehousing track plans. Local military bases may still have trackwork in place or connectable, for essential victuals handling.

The (peakoil.net) newsletter 42 article 374 will outline steps. ENERGY INDEPENDENCE BONDS can go forward as Social Security voluntary account, so capitalization for renewables infrastructure/ electric railways vastly expanded in capacity & reach can be planned & constructed with deliberate speed. The important thing here is to have a PLAN- not the only course or even the best one. But, it is requisite to have a methodology to bolster confidence and maintain mobility. Starvation comes with crops rotting in the field without mobility & distribution; The Second Dimension Surface Transport Logistics Platform (railway) operates outside the fuel dependency of a highway transport mode in disarray. Researchers needing that jump-off point to get the juices flowing, study up on the 1838 "Post Road" Mandate from the US Congress. They did that to bring order to road chaos- same reasoning in spades applies now. Sustainable, localized, and federalized rail links are requisite for the village, as well as National functions.

[JoeBlow]

Dreamers!!! You think the mega elite corporate military industrial complex super friends are going to be in control of things when the shit hits the fan? Sorry to blow away the pot smoke from your conspiracy campout but you are so overestimating the people in our government. In reality when the shit hits the fan it's just going to be one big screwed up chaotic crying party, much like what happened to Iraq when Saddam Hussein's regieme fell but permanent and without joy that a dictator has been vanquished. It's going to be chaos. There is no contingency plan.

[Daniel Hazelton Waters]

Yeah I can really see how there could be plenty of problems even before peakoil. But I believe that peakoil will occur in 2005, we might not come aware of the fact untill 2006 though.
If we would have treated this with the same forsight we used for Y2K it might have been as nondramatic. But all debt money empires fall anyway this will be the trigger...

[Steven Rempel]

Better start learning how to farm yourself, and better quit the hedonistic materialistic addiction that is the human lifestyle these days, then this whole oil thing won't mean shit to you anyway; Hell, if it weren't for the fact that humans are generally schizophrenic (without them even knowing it) and at LEAST neurotic, then we wouldn't be in this whole damn mess, but we have become schized (we have seperated ourselves from our enviroment) and now have doomed our "selves" in this gret "lifestyle death". The trumpets have sounded, we have heralded the doom of the very cycle we created, this is ironic to the core hahahahahaahh.
I suggest you find a truer purpose in life to truely survive..................

[John Donnelly]

Although I actually agree that we are in for a VERY hard and brutal shock, I can't help but think I may be wrong. Anyone else get this? Maybe i'm just falling victi to the 'nothing has happened recently, therefore nothing will ever happen' mentality?

Certainly, society changing paradigm shifts are rare events, and I find it amazing that I, humble as I am, may well be living through one of the biggest changes in the history of Earth (in respect of Humankind at least). This is also a niggling thing - isn't it true that everybody always thinks they are living in the 'end times'?

[Deodand]

Most of the people posting on here are over-reacting in the extreme. The country is unlikely to collapse into some Mad Max style wasteland of anarchy and wilderness.

Look what Eastern Europe or China went through during the 1930s and 1940s. Wars so brutal and bloody that entire populations were destroyed. Stalinims, Maoism, Naziism killing and slaughtering millions of people.

Meanwhile the US struggled through the Great Depression and even entered WWII but it did not go through such utter chaos. So you alarmists and extremists comparing a low-rent imperial war in Iraq to the incomprehensible devastation and misery experienced by Eurasia in the middle of the 20th Century are merely demonstrating your lack of perspective and historical ignorance. Lay off the pipeweed and read a book.

Peak oil is here, it has already happened, and the transition may be worse than we went through in the 30s. But it is something we can survive. Humanity has endured far worse.

[John]

We are all in for some major changes in our lives. I really feel for those who are not aware of what is transforming around us. Our national deficiet is soaring, the world is in the age and time of Peak Oil, the fiat monay system is about to collapse, and every small country appears to be on the verge of having nukes in their possesion. I had a real good laugh when the lady in front of me at the local Starbucks was complaining because they forgot to add the whipped cream to her triple vanilla latte! Man of man, is she in for a rude awakening when the shit hits the fan in this country! Every 10 year old kid feels deprived if they dont have a camera cell phone, like they are starving and suffering. I see lots happening, and expect lots more to follow. Anyone who believes that we can sustain our way of living and things will get better are living in fantasy land. Wake up people! Start storing food, buying guns and ammo, gold, silver, and learn how to become as self sufficient as you can. Even if only 10% of what is said here comes true, you will that much more ready than 99.9% of the people out there. Some say "They will never let that to happen here", well, it did happen, and will happen again, though this time it will be different and more permanent. And besides, who is "They"? Are "They" going to protect you too? Ha! I would like to meet with "They" and ask them what preparations "They" are making to help stop all thay "They" have created that got us in this mess to begin with. You want a helping hand through the comming years? Look at the end of your sleeve, you will find it there. Good luck to all.

[Grammarian]

But ultimately, in our own lives, just as on the world stage, *whomever* does not act now will soon find they have already lost the game..

*Whomever* should be *whoever* since it is the subject, not the object of the sentence.

[shoal]

I see and admire your manner of living, your warm houses, your extensive fields of corn, your gardens, your cows, oxen, work-horses, wagons, and a thousand machines, that I know not the use of. I see that you are able to clothe yourself, even from weeds and grass. In short you can do almost what you choose. You whites possess the power of subduing almost every animal to your use. You are surrounded by slaves. Everything about you is in chains, and you are slaves yourselves. I hear I should exchange my presents for yours. I too should become a slave. Talk to my sons, perhaps they may be persuaded to adopt your fashions, or at least to recommend them to their sons; but for myself, I was born free, was raised free, and wish to die free.

-Big Soldier, 1820

[Brent]

I can see some things that I will have to do once or before peak oil happens. Build a windmill from scatch. Costs are under $2000. See http://www.otherpower.com/. Lower spending as much as possible. Bump up mortgage payments if possible (this could be our curse). Give up Sattelite TV. Drastically reduce driving by bicycling every day to work (not just half the year), even in winter, do groceries by bicycle, walk etc. Thankfully my Toyota Echo will be paid off June 2006. Insulate house better with snow wall in winter, using plastic to protect house when snow melts and a wood wall to hold in snow. That wall might consist of brush matter in the spring. Plant better gardens and learn what wild foods can be eaten beyond berries. Reduce unnecessary purchases. Etc.

Perhaps everybody should write a big list of things to do to reduce cost of living expenses.

[Eric Goetz]

I think that this is very interesting topic. I just bought a new truck getting mid teens on milage. And I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid when it's passed to me. The population will thin out and there will be more gas for the trucks.

[Bloody Spike]

Oh, of course we always have to have some one bitch about how racist the world is and that there is nothing but a huge white supremist conspiracy meant for nothing but enslaving every thing that isn't the right shade. Wow. Give yourself a pat on the back. Now you have managed to make Hurricane Katrina AND Peak Oil racist. Please, walk outside and look around. Do you see any slave cabins? Probably not. In fact, I know you don't. So I'm surrounded by slaves am I? You're right. I am. I'm surrounded by people enslaved to their own dumbed down desynsatized minds. I'm surrounded by slaves that can't think for themselves. And guess what, a good part of these people are white. Imagine that! White people! Wow!.......I kid you not. And then there's all the people enslaved to their childish prejudices. People like you. But in the end, aren't we all enslaved to something? I'm enslaved to my anger and cynicality, as you can see from this post. But I do believe neither were wasted while writing this. This was a worthy endeavor. Now I hope that you have gained some sense of reality from this. If you haven't, please go outside and shoot yourself. I seriously don't want to hear anymore about racist Peak Oil prevention plans. HONESTLY, HOW THE HELL DID YOU GET WHITE SUPREMISM OUT OF THAT?! ARE YOU SOME KIND OF FUCKING ACID CASUALTY?! Go look for Elvis in your refridgerator you dumbass. Go ahead an die free. I don't care. I think your sons are obviously more sensable than you. REDUSE THE DOSAGE YOU IDIOT!
~Bloody Spike

[Scott Coursey]

I sense a little negativity in that post ! Thanks to all for an excellent database of resources for our futures , I actually find myself looking foreward to the coming problems because we can now have a choice in our futures . The people posting here should begin working together as quickly as possible !

[Will Stirrup]

There seems to be a lot of talk here about so-called slavery. Well western democracies all follow the so-called "Mixed Economy" model, because a substantial part of the GNP of a country is generated by government action. (GNP - Gross National Product for the non-economists amongst you)

And slavery where people are paid just enough to eat/drink and perhaps sleep in a shared shelter, is not much better than slavery where there is no choice because you are a "chattel", but live in a home of multiple rooms like a Southern belle's hand-maiden.

The world is running out of cheap energy at a time when China and India (population over 1 billion both) are starting to spread their economic wings, and will be soon fighting or bidding for the scarce resources their people need.

Renewable energies such as: solar energy, wind-power, wave-power, nuclear and hydrogen power (from water) are set to come into the spotlight for electricity generation.

Methanol, alcohol, ethanol, Bio-diesel, and Hydrogen will all be needed to fuel our personal transport systems. Though if you read the Whole Story at - "http://www.get113to138mpg.com

You will begin to understand WHY we are where we are.

VESTED INTERESTS.

W.

This is like saying we are all going to die? So what? It's stating the obvious. What can you do about it? Nothing. We're all going to die. Live it up now.

[John]

The Roman empire did fine with horse power, slaves, and swords. Can't see how it will be much different without oil. We can't have the ridiculous feed lot cities milking, fleecing, and devouring the world like Washington DC, New York City, and Los Angeles. These population centers will be dispersed and go back to living off the land. I am sure there will still be many changes and humans will adapt. Humans can adapt. If not, there will be war and populations will be reduced to a supportable number. They always are. What to do? Not much. I have a nature retreat, off the grid, solely needing no power. It's a slower simpler life. I actually like it. Maybe you will too.

[Wadard]

I suspect Iran's behaviour in the face of a US nuclear or otherwise threat is another indication that the players are indeed manouvering on the board before the free-for-all.

And I think actions to take are to adopt biodiesel, celluloistic ethanol, solar, wind, hydrogen, geothermal, etc. And to make carbon accounting universal.

I know I am dreamin now, but if we really get our shit together, early enough, a humanity wide class action against big oil and coal and everyone else who attempted to muddy the science of global warming would net us their $ mega trillions to finance a move from a petrocarbon to a hydrocarbon economy.

Finaly we need to learn stewardship of the planet, and pass it onto our kids.