America: The Next Generation

If you have not read The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe, I very highly recommend it. (Here’s a link to Amazon.com for it. ) Based on a study they undertook of successive generations of Americans and the characteristics which defined them, the researchers came to a remarkable conclusion. Briefly stated, it dawned on them that all the various generations they were studying exhibited essentially the same four sets of qualities or characteristics, manifesting successively and cyclically, almost exactly in comparison to the seasons of nature. Now this in itself is insightful to read, and helpful to recognize, as such an understanding of the subjective characteristics that people inherit simply by virtue of their generational identity can be extremely helpful in comprehending human relations. But they had a further insight, and one which catapulted the book toward the cult status it now enjoys.

Strauss and Howe believe that history shows us is that every fourth “turning”--the period at which one generational cycle ends and another begins anew--is characterized by a profound societal crisis. This crisis is an event of such magnitude that it effectively transforms society in ways that could never have been anticipated even a few years beforehand. When the book was first published in the mid-90’s, they advised that we would be approaching our next such crisis period around the year 2004 or so…and events since that time have certainly unfolded in a manner which supports their theory. For example, the theory asserted that events like Y2K and 9/11 did not, in and of themselves, fit the pattern as “fourth turning” crisis events…although a great many adherents argued differently at the time. Whatever form or forms the decisive crisis took, they stated, it had to happen concurrently with the shifting of generational roles.

The reason I bring this up is not just to suggest The Fourth Turning as an excellent stocking stuffer for the holidays...its because I’ve been pondering the idea of revolution in our society, and it seems to me that one aspect of that would indeed appear to be “generational": more specifically, a growing friction between the “Baby Boomer” and “Gen-X” ideologies and worldviews. Now that the leading-edge members of the Gen-X generation are approaching “middle-age”, over the next decade they will be slowly and increasingly challenging the Boomers for the reigns of leadership. And I believe that this is going to be an uneasy transition, because--on a generational level--Boomers really disrespect Gen-X, and Gen-X hates the Boomers….

The Baby Boomers have long been described as the most self-obsessed generation in modern history, but as Strauss and Howe point out, their more characteristic feature is that they are a generation that fundamentally believes its worldview--no matter how much that worldview might change and flip-flop--is always the right one. We can see the results of this hubris in a myriad ways, as Boomers impose their views, beliefs, morals and desires upon American society and the world with nary a moment of self-reflection or doubt. Gen-X, however, is a generation that not only doesn’t seek to impose its will on others, but bitterly resents uncontested authority in general.

Now I’m certainly not hinting that the next President will be a Gen-X one who will throw-off the Neo-Con’s and bring home the troops.... The Boomers would never allow that, and that isn’t the Gen-X style, anyway.... Rather, I’m interested in Strauss and Howe’s prediction that it will be Gen-X's role to quietly rise up and lead the way toward the rebuilding of society once the vast Ponzi-scheme the Boomers built comes crumbling down around us. In truth, I don't see anything decisive in this regard just yet. So, for instance, I can't help but wonder where the Gen-X voice is during the recent Social Security "reform" debate...because knowing that they will never receive Social Security themselves, you can bet they resent having it forcefully taken from their paychecks to support the retiring Boomers….

Oh…and in all fairness, I should repeat that while one can truthfully acknowledge certain general qualities and characteristics about a large group of people, these characteristics cannot be transposed down to the individual members of that group…which is a long-winded way of saying that many individual Gen-X’ers are undoubtedly closed-minded fools, and many individual Boomers are conscientious and caring. In fact, a small number of them have even apologized for what they’ve done….

Sam Smith, for instance, has apologized. And, I feel, some of his points are greatly appreciated, if not entirely forgiveable....

"...I am profoundly embarrassed by the way we destroyed the public school system of our country." [Not entirely your generation's fault, Sam...but thank you anyway.--Ed.]

"...I regret that we helped to redefine 'cool' from being an inner state of grace and rebellion to being an outward display of consumption and compliance."

"...I apologize for the Harvard Business School and the Yale Law School and all the deplorable effluvia from the same, including the transformation of the Organization Man into a sex symbol."

James Kunstler also apologizes. (To his credit, however, he keeps an excellent and enjoyable weblog, under the ballsy title "The Clusterfuck Nation Chronicles". Also, I really like his paintings….)

“I feel that the young people of America deserve an apology from the past two generations, mine and my parents', for wrecking their everyday world. These are the environments that the current generation grew up in, to whom they are absolutely baseline normal. They're pretty much the same whether you're in Shreveport, Bangor, or San Jose. These places, and their furnishings, represent the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world. Their salient characteristic was their futurelessness, and that future is now here.

...your generation will see all this stuff lose even its provisional usefulness and all of its supposed investment value. You will have to find a different way to arrange your lives in the decades to come. You'll have to return to traditional human habitats of town and farm as the role of the car diminishes down to nothing, and as the US economy comes to center on food production. Corridors like the highway strip above will be your future salvage yards. A hundred years from now, little will be left of them but the tilt-up concrete walls and the paved parking lagoons sprouting weeds. Meanwhile, your cow barns and hog pens will be roofed with Auto Zone signs. Perhaps it will seem quaint, but most of you who survive will be too busy to cultivate an air of irony about it.

So, the question really is...what kind of plans will you start making to live in a very different country? Can you and other young people generate a political vision to take yourselves there without fighting desperately among yourselves? You'll need it. Can you generate a spiritual narrative to account for all this ruin without compromising your humanity? I hope so.”

So those two are off the hook. And currently serving their sentences, I might add, engaged in self-imposed rehabilitation through community service work. I'm still waiting for apologies from the rest....